Comparison of Results of Direct GCM Output

The estimates for temperature and precipitation change in the twenty-first century are more dramatic than the estimates based on IS92a and IS92c emission scenarios used in previous study. The direction of expected changes (e.g., strongest increase in air temperature and precipitation decrease in the summer) is the same but their intensity is different.

Table 23.6 Projected changes of average daily air temperature (°C) and precipitation (%) for (a) eastern part of Macedonia under continental climate impacts (represented by locations Kriva Palanka and Berovo) and (b) north-western part of Macedonia under the prevailing Alpine impacts (represented by locations Lazaropole, Popova Sapka, and Solunska Glava)

Table 23.6 Projected changes of average daily air temperature (°C) and precipitation (%) for (a) eastern part of Macedonia under continental climate impacts (represented by locations Kriva Palanka and Berovo) and (b) north-western part of Macedonia under the prevailing Alpine impacts (represented by locations Lazaropole, Popova Sapka, and Solunska Glava)

DJF

JJA

Annual

2025

2050

2075

2100

2025

2050

2075

2100

2025

2050

2075

2100

(a)

T

1.1

2.4

3.4

4.6

1.3

2.5

3.9

5.2

1.1

2.2

3.4

4.6

RR

2

4

8

6

-4

-10

-14

-20

-2

-5

-7

-10

(b)

T

1.2

2.7

3.8

5.2

1.5

2.8

4.5

5.9

1.3

2.6

3.9

5.3

RR

2

4

7

5

-4

-9

-13

-18

-2

-3

-5

-8

The difference is probably related to the fact that IS92 emission scenarios proposed by the IPCC in 1995 are more optimistic than SRES scenarios proposed in 2001. This can be seen also in the projections for global temperature change based on IS92 emission scenarios which are lower than those based on SRES scenarios. Another reason could be the different GCMs were used in both studies (Fig. 23.1) [4-6].

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