Causes of Warming in Surface Atmosphere

Solar radiation in visible and infra-red areas of the spectrum widely controls the temperature of Earth's surface and adjacent atmosphere. Small admixtures as CO2, methane CH4, water H2O, ozone O3, gas hydrates and others impact on the atmosphere balance. Recent models [1] point to the essential contribution of water vapors in the radiation condition of lower atmosphere. In papers [2, 3] is made a conclusion that in nearest future a CO2 concentration growth and, respectively, greenhouse effect reduction (earth's surface temperature decrease) is expected.

The solar radiation factors influencing the atmosphere temperature behavior must be considered. It is known that the maximums and minimums of 11-year cycles of solar activity coincided with maximums and minimums in surface atmosphere temperature changes.

It is also known that in solar cycles the cycles with periods of 11-13, 21-23, 35-42, 55-60, and 90-100 years prevail [4-6]. These periodicities point to a real connection of surface temperature variations with solar activity. The recent 60 years were characterized by a high level of solar activity for the period of the last 500 years. From 1998 on the solar activity decrease began, and in this period maximum warming was marked. This period can be also characterized as a beginning of global temperature fall [7]. The analysis of surface temperature climatic variations in troposphere above Kyrgyzstan, according to meteorological stations located at altitudes 2,040 and 3,700 m above sea level, shows their clear dependence on the solar activity level in 21th and 22nd 11-year cycles. In periods of maximum solar activity the atmosphere temperature at these levels was 0.7°C higher in winter relative to average background temperature, and in periods of its minimum it was 0.8°C lower [5, 6, 8].

From maximum to minimum of the 11-year solar activity cycle the atmosphere temperature changed by 1.5-1.6°C. Following the researchers [4], a global air temperature sharply decreased lately by 0.6°C. So, if for the previous 100 years global temperature increased an average of 0.6°C, in a few recent years the nature rehabilitated itself the temperature equilibrium.

In the winter periods of 2006-2010 the increase of temperature was not observed in Kyrgyzstan. By contrary, the temperature average values decreased by 0.5-0.7°C during winter.

High-altitude structure of a warming process development in atmosphere is of special interest. We conducted special researches and analyzed high-altitude variations of warming rate. For the analysis, temperature measurements of meteorological and aerological stations of Kyrgyzstan were used, for a period between 1984 and 2006. The analysis of these data showed that a process of warming occurs basically (to 90%) in troposphere, from surface layer up to altitudes 3.5-4.0 km [5, 7]. Higher than 6 km, the warming changes into a fall in the temperature and practically all layer of lower stratosphere becomes cold.

Actually, the investigation of the causes of warming tries to define if carbon dioxide concentration increase in atmosphere is really a cause or a consequence of warming. According to experimental data, CO2 concentration increase in atmosphere does not precede a process of warming, but occurs after it.

Following the theoretical researches at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics RAS [1] the temperature variations in recent decades pass ahead the variations of CO2 concentration.

The researches of scientists dedicated to oceans showed that around 90% of natural CO2 is dissolved in ocean water [9], and many-year variations of ocean water surface temperature for 5 years periods correlate well with variations of solar activity. Moreover, according to the researches of the ice cores in the Antarctic and Greenland, CO2 concentration increase in Earth's atmosphere occurs after the warming in atmosphere, but not before it. This again points to the fact that CO2 concentration increase in Earth's atmosphere is not a cause, but an aftermath of warming.

Our researches, based on the classical theory of M. M. Budyko [10], identified a share of anthropogenic contribution, as CO2, not higher than 25-30%, in warming process above Kyrgyzstan region [6, 11]. At present, these data are quite real as a man-caused factor. Special attention was paid to the influence of H2O water vapor in lower atmosphere.

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