Approach for Groundwater Impact Modeling Studies

The general approach for any kind of climate change impact modeling assessment is principally straightforward. The process starts by selecting one or more climate change scenarios that explore possible future changes in climate variables. If the scenarios are taken from the results of a GCM (global circulation model) then the next crucial step is to downscale the GCM results to the basin scale. The downscaled GCM results are then used as input for the hydrological model that is constructed for the study area of interest. Finally, the hydrological model is run for the current and future climate, and both simulation results are compared to further assess the impacts of climate change. The attractive side of this approach is that it will always yield a result, for whatever part of the hydrological cycle. The simulations will give changes in floods, low flows, groundwater recharge, and whatever else is requested. The question here, however, is the confidence one can have in these simulations [4].

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