Analyzing the direct impact of weather anomalies on the size of the harvest

In most cases, statistical data on harvests in Russia are in compliance with weather characteristics available from different historical and scientific sources. However, it should be borne in mind that the links between weather variability and grain production in any one region are not always straightforward. There may be some local details in terms of weather conditions that are not reflected in the statistical data on meteorological parameters (monthly temperature and precipitation). Even a single good rainfall after two months of drought may radically improve the state of the crop, or, in contrast, good weather during May and June could be followed by a few days with too strong, dry winds (sukhovei) or dust storms (mgla) that damage the crop. Prospects for good harvests also strongly depend on the moisture in the top layer of the soil at the beginning of the growing period, but statistical data on this parameter are rare. The severity of the winter is also an essential factor for the winter crop.

Various remedial measures that were adopted, such as replanting damaged crops, could also explain some of the contradictions between climatic condition and crop statistics.

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