Setting the Negotiating Table The Race to Replace Kyoto by 2012

Julianne Smith and Alexander T. J. Lennon

For the global response to climate change, 2007 was a landmark year. It began in January with President Bush's State of the Union address, in which he for the first time acknowledged "the serious challenge of global climate change," and concluded in December with the Bali Roadmap which global negotiators will use to seek to finalize an agenda for a framework by 2009 in Copenhagen to replace the Kyoto accord, due to expire in 2012. Although this was the ambitious officially declared agenda, Yvo de Boer, the executive secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), revealingly stated in an October 2007 interview, "I think the challenge in the next two years will be to design a climate policy that is good for the United Sates, good for China, and good for the EU."1

These three global powerhouses alone are responsible for roughly half of global greenhouse gas emissions (GHG), according to the World Resource Institute's Climate Analysis Indicators Tool (CAIT), emitting 20.4,14.1, and 14.7 percent of global GHG emissions, respectively, in 2000, the most recent year for which all GHG emissions figures are available.2 No other country is responsible for more than 5.7 percent. If these three players can agree, the

The authors both gratefully acknowledge Derek Mix, a fellow in the Center for Strategic and International Studies Europe program, for his substantial research and writing contributions to this chapter.

core of a global framework exists. The question is: Can they? In this chapter we examine the ways in which Europe, the United States, and China see the challenge of global climate change.

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