In its 2006 International Energy Outlook, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts increased global demand for every major fuel type through 2030, though the rate of growth varies significantly among them (see figure 4-3).
This EIA projection provides a useful policy-neutral reference case for analyzing the pressures that climate change will exert on patterns of energy production and consumption. There will be significant foreign policy and national security implications for energy exporters and importers alike, including the following: a strengthened geopolitical hand for natural gas-exporting countries and, potentially, biofuel-exporting countries as well; a weakened hand, both strategically and economically, for importers of all fuel types, who will find themselves increasingly vulnerable to supply disruption; growing nuclear safety and proliferation threats; and a steady increase in the economic and environmental cost of delaying the implementation of global carbon reduction policies.
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