Contents

Acknowledgments vii

1 National Security and Climate Change in Perspective 1

Kurt M. Campbell and Christine Parthemore

2 Can History Help with Global Warming? 26 J. R. McNeill

3 Three Plausible Scenarios of Future Climate Change 49

Jay Gulledge

4 Security Implications of Climate Scenario 1:

Expected Climate Change over the Next Thirty Years 97

John Podesta and Peter Ogden

5 Security Implications of Climate Scenario 2:

Severe Climate Change over the Next Thirty Years 133

Leon Fuerth

6 Security Implications of Climate Scenario 3:

Catastrophic Climate Change over the Next One Hundred Years 155 Sharon Burke

7 A Partnership Deal: Malevolent and Malignant Threats 169

R. James Woolsey

8 Setting the Negotiating Table: The Race to Replace Kyoto by 2012 191

Julianne Smith and Alexander T. J. Lennon

9 Conclusion: The Clear Implications of Global Climate Change 213 Kurt M. Campbell and Richard Weitz

Contributors Index

225 227

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