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Deep saline formations

1,000

Uncertain, but possibly 104

a These numbers would increase by 25% if 'undiscovered' oil and gas fields were included in this assessment.

a These numbers would increase by 25% if 'undiscovered' oil and gas fields were included in this assessment.

gas reservoir engineering and groundwater resources investigations. Although they include many of the physical, chemical and geomechanical processes needed to predict both short-term and long-term performance of CO2 storage, more experience is needed to establish confidence in their effectiveness in predicting long-term performance when adapted for CO2 storage. Moreover, the availability of good site characterization data is critical for the reliability of models.

Risk assessment and environmental impact

The risks due to leakage from storage of CO2 in geological reservoirs fall into two broad categories: global risks and local risks. Global risks involve the release of CO2 that may contribute significantly to climate change if some fraction leaks from the storage formation to the atmosphere. In addition, if CO2 leaks out of a storage formation, local hazards may exist for humans, ecosystems and groundwater. These are the local risks.

With regard to global risks, based on observations and analysis of current CO2 storage sites, natural systems, engineering systems and models, the fraction retained in appropriately selected and managed reservoirs is very likely10 to exceed 99% over 100 years, and is likely to exceed 99% over 1000 years. Similar fractions retained are likely for even longer periods of time, as the risk of leakage is expected to decrease over time as other mechanisms provide additional trapping. The question of whether these fractions retained would be sufficient to make impermanent storage valuable for climate change mitigation is discussed in Section 8.

With regard to local risks, there are two types of scenarios in which leakage may occur. In the first case, injection well failures or leakage up abandoned wells could create a sudden and rapid release of CO2. This type of release is likely to be detected quickly and stopped using techniques that are available today for containing well blow-outs. Hazards associated with this type of release primarily affect workers in the vicinity of the release at the time it occurs, or those called in to control the blow-out. A concentration of CO2 greater than 7-10% in air would cause immediate dangers to human life and health. Containing these kinds of releases may take hours to days and the overall amount of CO2 released is likely to be very small compared to the total amount injected. These types of hazards are managed effectively on a regular basis in the oil and gas industry using engineering and administrative controls.

In the second scenario, leakage could occur through undetected faults, fractures or through leaking wells where the release to the surface is more gradual and diffuse. In this case, hazards primarily affect drinking-water aquifers and ecosystems where CO2 accumulates in the zone between the surface and the top of the water table. Groundwater can be affected both by CO2 leaking directly into an aquifer and by brines that enter the aquifer as a result of being displaced by CO2 during the injection process. There may also be acidification of soils and displacement of oxygen in soils in this scenario. Additionally, if leakage to the atmosphere were to occur in low-lying areas with little wind, or in sumps and basements overlying these diffuse leaks, humans and animals would be harmed if a leak were to go undetected. Humans would be less affected by leakage from offshore storage locations than from onshore storage locations. Leakage routes can be identified by several techniques and by characterization of the reservoir. Figure TS.8 shows some of the potential leakage paths for a saline formation. When the potential leakage routes are known, the monitoring and remediation strategy can be adapted to address the potential leakage.

Careful storage system design and siting, together with methods for early detection of leakage (preferably long before CO2 reaches the land surface), are effective ways of reducing hazards associated with diffuse leakage. The available monitoring methods are promising, but more experience is needed to establish detection levels and resolution. Once leakages are detected, some remediation techniques are available to stop or control them. Depending on the type of leakage, these techniques could involve standard well repair techniques, or the extraction of CO2 by intercepting its leak into a shallow groundwater aquifer (see Figure TS.8).

10 "Very likely" is a probability of 90 to 99%.

Injected C02 migrates up dip maximizing dissolution & residual C02 trapping

Injected C02 migrates up dip maximizing dissolution & residual C02 trapping

1 Fault

Potential Escape Mechanisms

A. 02 gas pressure exceeds capillary pressure & passes through siltstone

A. Extract & purify groundwater

1 Fault

Potential Escape Mechanisms

B. Free C02 leaks from A into upper aquifer up fault

C. co2 escapes through 'gap' in cap rock into higher aquifer

D. Injected C02 migrates up dip, increases reservoir pressure & permeability of fault

E. C02 escapes via poorly plugged old abandoned well

F. Natural flow dissolves C02 atC02 / water interface & transports it out of closure

Remedial Measures

B. Extract & purify groundwater

C. Remove C02

& reinject elsewhere

D. Lower injection rates or pressures

E. Re-plug well with cement

F. Intercept & reinject C02

G. Dissolved C02 escapes to atmosphere or ocean

G. Intercept & reinject C02

Figure TS.8. Potential leakage routes and remediation techniques for CO2 injected into saline formations. The remediation technique would depend on the potential leakage routes identified in a reservoir (Courtesy CO2CRC).

Techniques to remove CO2 from soils and groundwater are also available, but they are likely to be costly. Experience will be needed to demonstrate the effectiveness, and ascertain the costs, of these techniques for use in CO2 storage.

Monitoring and verification

Monitoring is a very important part of the overall risk management strategy for geological storage projects. Standard procedures or protocols have not been developed yet but they are expected to evolve as technology improves, depending on local risks and regulations. However, it is expected that some parameters such as injection rate and injection well pressure will be measured routinely. Repeated seismic surveys have been shown to be useful for tracking the underground migration of CO2. Newer techniques such as gravity and electrical measurements may also be useful. The sampling of groundwater and the soil between the surface and water table may be useful for directly detecting CO2 leakage. CO2 sensors with alarms can be located at the injection wells for ensuring worker safety and to detect leakage. Surface-based techniques may also be used for detecting and quantifying surface releases. High-quality baseline data improve the reliability and resolution of all measurements and will be essential for detecting small rates of leakage.

Since all of these monitoring techniques have been adapted from other applications, they need to be tested and assessed with regard to reliability, resolution and sensitivity in the context of geological storage. All of the existing industrial-scale projects and pilot projects have programmes to develop and test these and other monitoring techniques. Methods also may be necessary or desirable to monitor the amount of CO2 stored underground in the context of emission reporting and monitoring requirements in the UNFCCC (see Section 9). Given the long-term nature of CO2 storage, site monitoring may be required for very long periods.

Legal issues

At present, few countries have specifically developed legal and regulatory frameworks for onshore CO2 storage. Relevant legislation include petroleum-related legislation, drinking-water legislation and mining regulations. In many cases, there are laws applying to some, if not most, of the issues related to CO2 storage. Specifically, long-term liability issues, such as global issues associated with the leakage of CO2 to the atmosphere, as well as local concerns about environmental impact, have not yet been addressed. Monitoring and verification regimes and risks of leakage may play an important role in determining liability, and viceversa. There are also considerations such as the longevity of institutions, ongoing monitoring and transferability of institutional knowledge. The long-term perspective is essential to a legal framework for CCS as storage times extend over many generations as does the climate change problem. In some countries, notably the US, the property rights of all those affected must be considered in legal terms as pore space is owned by surface property owners.

According to the general principles of customary international law, States can exercise their sovereignty in their territories and could therefore engage in activities such as the storage of CO2 (both geological and ocean) in those areas under their jurisdiction. However, if storage has a transboundary impact, States have the responsibility to ensure that activities within their jurisdiction or control do not cause damage to the environment of other States or of areas beyond the limits of national jurisdiction.

Currently, there are several treaties (notably the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, and the London11 and OSPAR12 Conventions) that could apply to the offshore injection of CO2 into marine environments (both into the ocean and the geological sub-seabed). All these treaties have been drafted without specific consideration of CO2 storage. An assessment undertaken by the Jurists and Linguists Group to the OSPAR Convention (relating to the northeast Atlantic region), for example, found that, depending on the method and purpose of injection, CO2 injection into the geological sub-seabed and the ocean could be compatible with the treaty in some cases, such as when the CO2 is transported via a pipeline from land. A similar assessment is now being conducted by Parties to the London Convention. Furthermore, papers by legal commentators have concluded that CO2 captured from an oil or natural gas extraction operation and stored offshore in a geological formation (like the Sleipner operation) would not be considered 'dumping' under, and would not therefore be prohibited by, the London Convention.

Public perception

Assessing public perception of CCS is challenging because of the relatively technical and "remote" nature of this issue at the present time. Results of the very few studies conducted to date about the public perception of CCS indicate that the public is generally not well informed about CCS. If information is given alongside information about other climate change mitigation options, the handful of studies carried out so far indicate that CCS is generally regarded as less favourable than other options, such as improvements in energy efficiency and the use of non-fossil energy sources. Acceptance of CCS, where it occurs, is characterized as "reluctant" rather than "enthusiastic". In some cases, this reflects the perception that CCS might be required because of a failure to reduce CO2 emissions in other ways. There are indications that geological storage could be viewed favourably if it is adopted in conjunction with more desirable measures. Although public perception is likely to change in the future, the limited research to date indicates that at least two conditions may have to be met before CO2 capture and storage is considered by the public as a credible technology, alongside other better known options: (1) anthropogenic global climate change has to be regarded as a relatively serious problem; (2) there must be acceptance of the need for large reductions in CO2 emissions to reduce the threat of global climate change.

Cost of geological storage

The technologies and equipment used for geological storage are widely used in the oil and gas industries so cost estimates for this option have a relatively high degree of confidence for storage capacity in the lower range of technical potential. However, there is a significant range and variability of costs due to site-specific factors such as onshore versus offshore, reservoir depth and geological characteristics of the storage formation (e.g., permeability and formation thickness).

Representative estimates of the cost for storage in saline formations and depleted oil and gas fields are typically between 0.5-8 US$/tCO2 injected. Monitoring costs of 0.1-0.3 US$/tCO2 are additional. The lowest storage costs are for onshore, shallow, high permeability reservoirs, and/or storage sites where wells and infrastructure from existing oil and gas fields may be re-used.

When storage is combined with EOR, ECBM or (potentially) Enhanced Gas Recovery (EGR), the economic value of CO2 can reduce the total cost of CCS. Based on data and oil prices prior to 2003, enhanced oil production for onshore EOR with CO2 storage could yield net benefits of 10-16 US$/tCO2 (3759 US$/tC) (including the costs of geological storage). For EGR and ECBM, which are still under development, there is no reliable cost information based on actual experience. In all cases, however, the economic benefit of enhanced production

11 Convention on the Prevention of Marine Pollution by Dumping of Wastes and Other Matter (1972), and its London Protocol (1996), which has not yet entered into force.

12 Convention for the Protection of the Marine Environment of the North-East Atlantic, which was adopted in Paris (1992). OSPAR is an abbreviation of Oslo-Paris.

depends strongly on oil and gas prices. In this regard, the literature basis for this report does not take into account the rise in world oil and gas prices since 2003 and assumes oil prices of 15-20 US$ per barrel. Should higher prices be sustained over the life of a CCS project, the economic value of CO2 could be higher than that reported here.

6. Ocean storage

A potential CO2 storage option is to inject captured CO2 directly into the deep ocean (at depths greater than 1,000 m), where most of it would be isolated from the atmosphere for centuries. This can be achieved by transporting CO2 via pipelines or ships to an ocean storage site, where it is injected into the water column of the ocean or at the sea floor. The dissolved and dispersed CO2 would subsequently become part of the global carbon cycle. Figure TS.9 shows some of the main methods that could be employed. Ocean storage has not yet been deployed or demonstrated at a pilot scale, and is still in the research phase. However, there have been small-scale field experiments and 25 years of theoretical, laboratory and modelling studies of intentional ocean storage of CO2.

Storage mechanisms and technology

Oceans cover over 70% of the earth's surface and their average depth is 3,800 m. Because carbon dioxide is soluble in water, there are natural exchanges of CO2 between the atmosphere and waters at the ocean surface that occur until equilibrium is reached. If the atmospheric concentration of CO2 increases, the ocean gradually takes up additional CO2. In this way, the oceans have taken up about 500 GtCO2 (140 GtC) of the total 1,300 GtCO2 (350 GtC) of anthropogenic emissions released to the atmosphere over the past 200 years. As a result of the increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations from human activities relative to pre-industrial levels, the oceans are currently taking up CO2 at a rate of about 7 GtCO2 yr-1 (2 GtC yr-1).

Most of this carbon dioxide now resides in the upper ocean and thus far has resulted in a decrease in pH of about 0.1 at the ocean surface because of the acidic nature of CO2 in water. To date, however, there has been virtually no change in pH in the deep ocean. Models predict that over the next several centuries the oceans will eventually take up most of the CO2 released to the atmosphere as CO2 is dissolved at the ocean surface and subsequently mixed with deep ocean waters.

Figure TS.9. Methods of ocean storage.

There is no practical physical limit to the amount of anthropogenic CO2 that could be stored in the ocean. However, on a millennial time scale, the amount stored will depend on oceanic equilibration with the atmosphere. Stabilizing atmospheric CO2 concentrations between 350 ppmv and 1000 ppmv would imply that between 2,000 and 12,000 GtCO2 would eventually reside in the ocean if there is no intentional CO2 injection. This range therefore represents the upper limit for the capacity of the ocean to store CO2 through active injection. The capacity would also be affected by environmental factors, such as a maximum allowable pH change.

Analysis of ocean observations and models both indicate that injected CO2 will be isolated from the atmosphere for at least several hundreds of years, and that the fraction retained tends to be higher with deeper injection (see Table TS.7). Ideas for increasing the fraction retained include forming solid CO2 hydrates and/or liquid CO2 lakes on the sea floor, and dissolving alkaline minerals such as limestone to neutralize the acidic CO2. Dissolving mineral carbonates, if practical, could extend the storage time scale to roughly 10,000 years, while minimizing changes in ocean pH and CO2 partial pressure. However, large amounts of limestone and energy for materials handling would be required for this approach (roughly the same order of magnitude as the amounts per tonne of CO2 injected that are needed for mineral carbonation; see Section 7).

Ecological and environmental impacts and risks

The injection of a few GtCO2 would produce a measurable change in ocean chemistry in the region of injection, whereas the injection of hundreds of GtCO2 would produce larger changes in the region of injection and eventually produce measurable changes over the entire ocean volume. Model simulations that assume a release from seven locations at 3,000 m depth and ocean storage providing 10% of the mitigation effort for stabilization at 550 ppmv CO2 projected acidity changes (pH changes) of more than 0.4 over approximately 1% of the ocean volume. By comparison, in a 550 ppmv stabilization case without ocean storage, a pH change of more than 0.25 at the ocean surface was estimated due to equilibration with the elevated CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere. In either case, a pH change of 0.2 to 0.4 is significantly greater than pre-industrial variations in ocean acidity. Over centuries, ocean mixing will result in the loss of isolation of injected CO2. As more CO2 reaches the ocean surface waters, releases into the atmosphere would occur gradually from large regions of the ocean. There are no known mechanisms for sudden or catastrophic release of injected CO2 from the ocean into the atmosphere.

Experiments show that adding CO2 can harm marine organisms. Effects of elevated CO2 levels have mostly been studied on time scales up to several months in individual organisms that live near the ocean surface. Observed phenomena include reduced rates of calcification, reproduction, growth, circulatory oxygen supply and mobility, as well as increased mortality over time. In some organisms these effects are seen in response to small additions of CO2. Immediate mortality is expected close to injection points or CO2 lakes. The chronic effects of direct CO2 injection into the ocean on ocean organisms or ecosystems over large ocean areas and long time scales have not yet been studied.

No controlled ecosystem experiments have been performed in the deep ocean, so only a preliminary assessment of potential ecosystem effects can be given. It is expected that ecosystem consequences will increase with increasing CO2 concentrations and decreasing pH, but the nature of such consequences is currently not understood, and no environmental criteria have as yet been identified to avoid adverse effects. At present, it is also unclear how or whether species and ecosystems would adapt to the sustained chemical changes.

Costs of ocean storage

Although there is no experience with ocean storage, some attempts have been made to estimate the costs of CO2 storage projects that release CO2 on the sea floor or in the deep ocean. The costs of CO2 capture and transport to the shoreline (e.g

Table TS.7. Fraction of CO2 retained for ocean storage as simulated by seven ocean models for 100 years of continuous injection at three different depths starting in the year 2000.

Year

800 m

Injection depth 1500 m

3000 m

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