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9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0

9,000 8,000

5,000 8

4,000 fc

Above 10

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Figure 2.2 Range of annual global CO2 emission in he SRES scenarios (GtCO2) (Source: IPCC, 2000).

Emissions per source (MtC02) □ Cumulative emissions (MtCOj) ♦ Number of sources

Figure 2.1 Relationship between large stationary source emissions and number of emission sources (Source: IEA GHG, 2002a).

Future anthropogenic CO2 emissions will be the product of different drivers such as demographic development, socioeconomic development, and technological changes (see Chapter 1, Section 1.2.4). Because their future evolution is inherently uncertain and because numerous combinations of different rates of change are quite plausible, analysts resort to scenarios as a way of describing internally consistent, alternative images of how the future might unfold. The IPCC developed a set of greenhouse gas emission scenarios for the period until 2100 (IPCC, 2000). The scenarios show a wide range of possible future worlds and CO2 emissions (see Figure 2.2), consistent with the full uncertainty range of the underlying literature reported by Morita and Lee (1998). The scenarios are important as they provide a backdrop for determining the baseline for emission reductions that may be achieved with new technologies, including CO2 capture and storage implemented specially for such purposes.

Technology change is one of the key drivers in long-term scenarios and plays a critical role in the SRES scenarios. Future rates of innovation and diffusion are integral parts of, and vary with, the story lines. Scenario-specific technology change may differ in terms of technology clusters (i.e., the type of technologies used) or rate of diffusion. In the fossil-intensive A1FI scenario, innovation concentrates on the fossil source-to-service chains stretching from exploration and resource

Year

Figure 2.2 Range of annual global CO2 emission in he SRES scenarios (GtCO2) (Source: IPCC, 2000).

extraction to fuel upgrading/cleaning, transport, conversion and end-use. Alternatively, innovation in the environmentally-oriented B1 scenario focuses on renewable and hydrogen technologies.

The way in which technology change was included in the SRES scenarios depended on the particular model used. Some models applied autonomous performance improvements to fuel utilization, while others included specific technologies with detailed performance parameters. Even models with a strong emphasis on technology reflected new technologies or innovation in a rather generic manner. For example, advanced coal technology could be either an integrated coal gasification combined cycle (IGCC) plant, a pressurized fluidized bed combustion facility or any other, as-yet-unidentified, technology. The main characteristics of advanced coal technology are attractive investment costs, high thermal efficiency, potential multi-production integration and low pollution emissions -features that are prerequisites for any coal technology carrying the "advanced" label.

In general, technological diversity remained a feature in all scenarios, despite the fact that different clusters may dominate more in different scenarios. The trend towards cleaner and more convenient technologies, especially at the level of end-use (including transport), is common to all scenarios. In addition, transport fuels shift broadly towards supply schemes suitable for pre-combustion decarbonization. Centralized non-fossil technologies penetrate the power sector to various extents, while decentralized and home-based renewable and hydrogen-production infrastructures expand in all scenarios, but mostly in the environmentally-conscious and technology-intensive scenarios.

Despite the trend towards cleaner fuels, CO2 emissions are projected to rise at different rates, at least until 2050. Emission patterns then diverge. Scenario-specific rates of technology change (performance improvements) and technology diffusion lead to different technology mixes, fuel uses and unit sizes. As regards fossil fuel use for power generation and industrial energy supply, the number of large stationary emission sources generally increases in the absence of restrictions on CO2 emissions and a fundamental change in the characteristics of these emission

Table 2.4 Sectoral and regional distribution of energy-related CO. emissions in 2000 (MtCO.) (Source: IEA, 2003).

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