Summary discussion and conclusions

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Geo-engineering by stratospheric aerosols as a possible means of mitigating the climate change associated with increased greenhouse gases has been reviewed. Sulphate aerosols in the stratosphere will increase the reflectivity of the planet and counteract some of the effects of CO2 warming. Part of the attraction of using stratospheric aerosols arises because volcanic eruptions form a natural but imperfect analogue to geo-engineering. Observations following major volcanic eruptions have demonstrated that sulphate aerosol, in sufficient amounts, will cool the planet, and that the Earth system can survive this kind of perturbation. Although the topic has been discussed over the last 30 years, only very recently have attempts been made to understand the interactions between various components of the climate system using modern tools for understanding climate consequences. These tools provide opportunities to quantify the interactions and consequences, and to explore those consequences on time scales that are much longer than the influence of a single volcanic eruption.

We have shown that state-of-the-art climate models used to simulate the Earth system produce the intended physical response to geo-engineering, i.e. the Earth does cool, and many components of the system return to a state more like an unperturbed Earth.

However, our studies have shown that the delivery of aerosols or their precursors, at least using our hypothetical aircraft, is a formidable task. For the conservative scenarios we have explored, it would take of the order of a million flights of 4-hour duration (2500 km) per year to deliver the nominal amount of aerosol (10 Tg particles yr-1 = 2.5TgSyr-1) needed to balance the warming associated with increasing greenhouse gas emissions. These numbers are still quite rough, and it is possible that up to four times as much sulphur might be required. We have not investigated the entire spectrum of delivery systems. The issues and methodology we have suggested may be relevant to other proposed delivery systems (artillery shells, balloons, hoses, other aircraft), although details will certainly be different. It may be possible to design more efficient methods for delivery, but all will require careful attention to detail and the difficulty of designing a system that produces particles of the right size over broad regions of the stratosphere should not be underestimated.

Although it is possible to cool the Earth to approximately the same globally averaged surface temperature, it is not likely that all aspects of the physical system will return to a state such as that prior to human-induced CO2 increases. It is important to emphasize the uncertainties in our characterization of these issues. We have made initial exploratory forays into understanding the consequences of geo-engineering, but much work remains to be done. The high sensitivity of polar regions to processes regulating energy in and out of the system would make it difficult to reproduce precisely the seasonal cycle of the polar climate for a pre-industrial (or even present day) world with geo-engineering.

A recent study by Stenchikov et al. (2006) showed that models have difficulty in capturing the regional response of the climate system to volcanic eruptions. They argued that volcanoes' influence on the Arctic Annular Oscillation is associated with the extra heating in the equatorial lower stratosphere, changing the temperature gradient in the lower stratosphere vortex and producing stronger westerlies and a winter warming over northern Eurasia and North America. Models identified in that paper (which were reviewed in the IPCC report) tended to underestimate and misplace the northern hemisphere winter surface temperature warming seen over Siberia in the observations following an eruption. This suggests that while the zeroth-order response of a surface cooling is likely to be robust, the first-order response of other components of the climate systems is a difficult problem and that model regional responses to stratospheric forcing changes must be viewed with caution.

As discussed in Section 12.2.4, there are also hints that rainfall patterns would be different from an undisturbed Earth, although it is likely that they would be much closer to that distribution than in a world with 2 x CO2 and no geo-engineering.

An increase in aerosol burden is likely to increase ozone depletion. We have shown that current chemistry climate models have difficulty in reproducing quantitatively the dynamics and chemistry of the arctic middle atmosphere. Better coupled chemistry climate models would allow an improved estimate of ozone, sulphate aerosol and dynamical interactions. The first step is to improve the models' capability in reproducing present day ozone representation, particularly for the northern hemisphere.

Reductions in ozone will lead to increases in solar ultraviolet-B radiation reaching the Earth's surface with a potential impact on human health (Ambach

& Blumthaler 1993; Madronich & de Gruijl 1993) and biological populations (Blaustein et al. 1994). The increase in UV associated with ozone depletion could be compensated for by increased light extinction and attenuation by the aerosol cloud itself; Vogelmann et al. (1992) and Wetzel et al. (2003) explored the compensation between these effects. Vogelmann et al. (1992) studied the effect for volcanic eruptions and concluded that, for stratospheric aerosol with an optical depth of 0.1-0.2 (approx. the value required for geo-engineering), ozone and aerosol effects approximately compensated. At higher aerosol amounts, the aerosol attenuation did not balance the enhancement from ozone, and UV was enhanced at the surface. This kind of calculation should be repeated with a focus upon geo-engineering and global warming, since ozone distributions and aerosol spatial and particle size distributions might differ significantly for geo-engineering scenarios compared with their volcanic eruption counterpart.

Gu et al. (2003) showed that volcanic aerosols from the Mount Pinatubo eruption substantially increase diffuse radiation worldwide, with a resulting enhancement to photosynthesis and uptake of CO2. The same effect is to be anticipated with the geo-engineering shield. Govindasamy et al. (2002) explored some aspects of interactions between the physical Earth system and the biosphere. They showed that stabilizing the temperature but not CO2 induced a change in net primary productivity. Their study had a number of limitations as follows: (i) they used a prescribed CO2 concentration, eliminating important feedbacks, (ii) they did not use a biospheric model that included nutrient limitation, (iii) they did not include an ocean biosphere, and (iv) their model was not sensitive to changes in the ratio of direct to diffuse radiation.

While ecosystems can survive occasional volcanic eruptions, it is not clear whether the consequences to ecosystems would be from long-term changes in direct/diffuse energy, or increases in UV radiation. These issues argue for more attention on the consequences of stratospheric aerosols to ecosystems.

The change in ratio of direct to diffuse radiation will also have an effect on solar energy production with technologies that make use of solar concentrators. Advances in solar energy production which operate efficiently in the presence of diffuse radiation are also possible, but a different technology is needed. Characterizing the consequences of geo-engineering for these technologies is worthwhile.

As mentioned in Sections 12.1,12.2.2 and 12.2.4, larger aerosol particles exhibit significant absorption in the infrared part of the energy spectrum. The cooling resulting from the scattering of incoming solar energy is thus partly compensated for by the absorption in the infrared. The proclivity of this geo-engineering method to form large particles makes it a less efficient solution than it would be if small particles were easily generated and maintained.

There are also occasional concerns voiced about increases to acid rain from this type of geo-engineering. We have shown that, although the perturbations to the stratospheric sulphur cycle are quite large (increasing the background sources there by a factor of 15-30), they are perhaps 2 per cent of the total (troposphere + stratosphere) sulphur sources. Therefore it is unlikely that geo-engineering will have a significant impact on acid deposition and the global increment could easily be balanced by a small reduction in tropospheric emissions. On the other hand, it is possible that the deposition of the geo-engineering aerosol could influence a region that normally sees little sulphate deposition from tropospheric sources if it occurs there. This should be looked into.

It is obvious that current models of the sulphur cycle could be substantially improved. It would be desirable to move beyond the bulk aerosol formulations used here to models that included the evolution of the particle size distribution, accounting explicitly for aerosol growth and coagulation. This would include a mechanism to move from the source as determined by the delivery system, to evolution within the plume and finally to scales resolved by a global model.

It is clear that this geo-engineering method will not alleviate the problems engendered by absorption of CO2 in the oceans, with a resulting decrease in ocean pH.

Substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions must take place soon to avoid large and undesirable climate impacts. This study has reviewed one technique that might be used in a planetary emergency to mitigate some of the effects of a projected global warming. We emphasize that, while the studies highlighted here are a step along the way, we believe no proposal (including the ideas explored here) has yet completed the series of steps required for a comprehensive and thoroughly studied geo-engineering mitigation strategy occurring in the peer reviewed literature (Cicerone 2006). Our review of studies of geo-engineering by sulphate aerosols suggests it will ameliorate some consequences of global warming. The study highlights some positive aspects of the strategy. However, many uncertainties remain in understanding the influence of geo-engineering on the climate system (particularly on aspects related to likely impacts on the biosphere). More work is required to understand the costs, benefits and risks involved, and to reconcile the legal, political and ethical issues of geo-engineering.

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Solar Panel Basics

Solar Panel Basics

Global warming is a huge problem which will significantly affect every country in the world. Many people all over the world are trying to do whatever they can to help combat the effects of global warming. One of the ways that people can fight global warming is to reduce their dependence on non-renewable energy sources like oil and petroleum based products.

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