Contents

SUMMARY 1

What We Know about Climate Change, 3 A New Era of Climate Change Research, 5 Recommendations, 8

PART I

1 INTRODUCTION: SCIENCE FOR UNDERSTANDING AND RESPONDING TO

CLIMATE CHANGE 19

Scientific Learning About Climate Change, 20

The New Era of Climate Change Science: Research for Understanding and

Responding to Climate Change, 22 Report Overview, 24

2 WHAT WE KNOW ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS INTERACTIONS

WITH PEOPLE AND ECOSYSTEMS 27

Changes in the Climate System, 29

Sea Level Rise and the Coastal Environment, 42

Freshwater Resources, 47

Ecosystems, Ecosystem Services, and Biodiversity, 51 Agriculture, Fisheries, and Food Production, 58 Public Health, 62

Cities and the Built Environment, 65 Transportation, 67 Energy Supply and Use, 70 Solar Radiation Management, 73 National and Human Security, 77

Designing, Implementing, and Evaluating Climate Policies, 80

3 A NEW ERA OF CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH 83 Complexities of Climate Change, 83

Responding to Climate Risks, 87

Implications for the Nation's Climate Research Enterprise, 87

CONTENTS

4 INTEGRATIVE THEMES FOR CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH 91

Theme 1 : Climate Forcings, Feedbacks, Responses, and Thresholds in the Earth System, 92

Theme 2: Climate-Related Human Behaviors and Institutions, 101 Theme 3: Vulnerability and Adaptation Analyses of Coupled Human-Environment Systems, 107

Theme 4: Research to Support Strategies for Limiting Climate Change, 113 Theme 5: Effective Information and Decision-Support Systems, 121 Theme 6: Integrated Climate Observing Systems, 126 Theme 7: Improved Projections, Analyses, and Assessments, 138 Chapter Conclusion, 149

5 RECOMMENDATIONS FOR MEETING THE CHALLENGE OF CLIMATE CHANGE

RESEARCH 151

An Integrative, Interdisciplinary, Decision-Relevant Research Program, 152 Setting Priorities, 155

Infrastructural Elements of the Research Program, 158

Organizing the Research, 162

Broader Partnerships, 171

Capacity Building, 177

A New Era of Climate Change Research, 180

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