Info

Sep 7

Oct 6

Nov 4

Dec 3

Jan 1

Jan 30

Date

FIGURE 8.2. Probability of total evaporation greater than 70 mm in any seven-day period from September onward at Cobar

A graph (Figure 8.3) is generated (can be a table also) which shows that the chances of this event (maximum temperature exceeding 36°C for two consecutive days) cannot be ruled out altogether, even in the early days of November. The highest chance of first such event is, however, in the period November 27 to 30.

3. A farmer at Dubbo, New South Wales, suffers repeated losses in wheat crop production as his crop is subjected to severe frost at anthesis. He is interested to know the most likely date of the last frost in the coming season to readjust the sowing dates so that his crop is not caught up in a frost event when at anthesis.

The information needed by the farmer at Dubbo is easily generated with MetAccess. The DSS has historical records for Dubbo.

Procedure. Open Dubbo from MetAccess Weather Files, choose "Outputs" from the menu bar and then "Probability" from the dropdown window. The "Probability" dialogue box opens. Select:

Minimum temperature less than -20C in a one-day interval

Probability—simple

Period from May 1 to October 31

Graph

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