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Choosing cumulative probability instead of simple probability, a different graph (Figure 8.2) is generated. The graph shows that the probability of total evaporation exceeding 70 mm in any previous seven-day period begins to rise rapidly from the last week of October. By the first week of December, there is a 90 percent chance that the total evaporation has exceeded 70 mm for at least one seven-day period.

2. A horticulture manager at Hillston, New South Wales, observed that whenever daytime temperature suddenly rises above 36°C for two consecutive days during the period November to early December, his cherry crop is heavily damaged. To take measures to minimize this damage, he wants information on the most likely timings when such events may occur during the November to early December period of the coming season.

The information a horticultural manager needs is easily generated with MetAccess. MetAccess has historical records for Hillston.

Procedure. Open Hillston from MetAccess Weather Files, choose "Outputs" from the menu bar and then "Probability" from the dropdown window. The "Probability" dialogue box opens. Select:

Temperature greater than 36°C in a two-day interval

Probability—simple

Period from October 1 to December 31

Graph

Cobar Mo (1971-1998)

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