Global Climate Change And Extreme Weather Events

FIGURE 1-2 Multimodel averages and assessed ranges for surface warming (compared to the 1980-1999 base period) for the SRES scenarios A2 (red), A1B (green), and B1 (blue), shown as continuations of the twentieth-century simulation. The latter two scenarios are continued beyond the year 2100 with forcing kept constant (committed climate change as it is defined in Box TS.9 [of IPCC, 2007a]). An additional experiment, in which the forcing is kept at the year 2000 level is also shown (orange). Linear trends from the corresponding control runs have been removed from these time series. Lines show the multimodel means, shading denotes the ±1 standard deviation range. Discontinuities between different periods have no physical meaning and are caused by the fact that the number of models that have run a given scenario is different for each period and scenario (numbers indicated in figure). For the same reason, uncertainty across scenarios should not be interpreted from this figure. SOURCE: Figure TS.32 in IPCC (2007a).

FIGURE 1-2 Multimodel averages and assessed ranges for surface warming (compared to the 1980-1999 base period) for the SRES scenarios A2 (red), A1B (green), and B1 (blue), shown as continuations of the twentieth-century simulation. The latter two scenarios are continued beyond the year 2100 with forcing kept constant (committed climate change as it is defined in Box TS.9 [of IPCC, 2007a]). An additional experiment, in which the forcing is kept at the year 2000 level is also shown (orange). Linear trends from the corresponding control runs have been removed from these time series. Lines show the multimodel means, shading denotes the ±1 standard deviation range. Discontinuities between different periods have no physical meaning and are caused by the fact that the number of models that have run a given scenario is different for each period and scenario (numbers indicated in figure). For the same reason, uncertainty across scenarios should not be interpreted from this figure. SOURCE: Figure TS.32 in IPCC (2007a).

The study of potential associations between climate change and health poses a number of methodological challenges including the need to consider confounding factors as possible explanations of apparent associations between climatic variables and health outcomes. Such confounding factors may include changes in resistance to insecticides (in the case of vector-borne diseases); changes in resistance to commonly used drugs for treatment (e.g., in the case of malaria); migration of populations, which may result in the exposure of nonimmune populations to infectious diseases; and changes in the performance of disease surveillance systems over time. Some diseases, such as malaria, exhibit differences in

CLIMATE CHANGE CHALLENGES 61

Was this article helpful?

0 0

Post a comment