Global Climate Change And Extreme Weather Events

Progression of Bluetongue Viruses Emergence in Europe

2007: Established in N. Europe and Kazakstan (C. dewulfi, C. chiopterus, C. obsoletus complex)

2005: Established in central Europe (C. obsoletus, C. pulicaris)

2002: Movement above N. Africa; Established in S. Europe (C. imicola, C. obsoletus, C. pulicaris)

FIGURE SA-5 Progression of bluetongue viruses emergence in Europe.

SOURCE: Figure updated from Osburn (2008-) and created by Rick Hayes, School of

Veterinary Medicine, University of California, Davis.

suggest that a significant warming trend in this region has amplified mosquito population dynamics so as to contribute, along with drug resistance and land-use patterns, to the increased incidence of malaria (Harrus and Baneth, 2005; IOM, 2008; Pascual et al., 2006).

Climate Variation and Infectious Disease Transmission

Several recent studies have examined the relationship between short-term climatic variation and the occurrence of infectious diseases, in particular the influence of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the transmission of such vector- and non-vector-borne diseases as malaria, dengue fever, cholera, Rift Valley fever (RVF), and hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (Anyamba et al., 2006; McMichael et al., 2006; see Figure SA-6). ENSO, the irregular cycling between warm (El Niño) and cool (La Niña) phases of surface water temperatures across the central and east-central equatorial Pacific, is a well-known source of climate variability (see Haines in Chapter 1 and Chretien in Chapter 2). ENSO-associated shifts in ocean surface temperatures influence temperature and precipitation patterns throughout the global tropics, simultaneously producing excessive rainfall in some areas and drought in others (Kovats et al., 2003).

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