Temperature Rise TK

Figure 7.31 Correlation of proliferation-risk index with global-averaged surface temperature rise for BAU/BO scenarios (/Max = 0.3); the case of once-through fuel cycles (fMOX = 0.0) for the BAU/BO basis scenario is also shown (Krakowski, 1999).

energy mix for this BAU scenario [i.e., relatively cheap fossil fuel (Edmonds and Reilly, 1985), but is not as cheap for the IIASA fossil-energy resource data base (Rogner, 1997)]. The impact of optimism in the fossil-fuel resource-base assumptions is reported elsewhere (Krakowski, 1999).

Carbon taxes are imposed at a linear rate CTAX($/tonneC/15yr) starting in the year 2005 (first "available" time after 1990 in the ERB model). The impact of increased fossil energy costs through carbon taxation on nuclear energy demand is shown parametrically in the CTAX parameter in Fig. 7.34. For the purposes of this study, the revenues collected from these taxes are assumed to "disappear" from the respective (13 regional) economies. The impact of more "revenue-neutral" schemes have been investigated (Krakowski, 1998a), but the ERB model [only one economic sector (energy) is modeled] is not sufficiently sophisticated to explore this problem with any degree of realism. Generally,

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