Sample results carbontax variations

Figure 7.32 Impacts of increasing or decreasing the capital cost on nuclear-energy demand according to an exogenously determined schedule (Krakowski, 1999) have a time constant Tutc = 40 yr; comparisons are made with recent IAEA high (HV), medium (MV), and low (LV) variant projections (Wagner, 1997), which are based on the IIASA/WEC study (Nakicenovic et al., 1995, 1998); the case where /UTC = 3.0 is adopted as a description of phase-out scenarios.

Year

Figure 7.32 Impacts of increasing or decreasing the capital cost on nuclear-energy demand according to an exogenously determined schedule (Krakowski, 1999) have a time constant Tutc = 40 yr; comparisons are made with recent IAEA high (HV), medium (MV), and low (LV) variant projections (Wagner, 1997), which are based on the IIASA/WEC study (Nakicenovic et al., 1995, 1998); the case where /UTC = 3.0 is adopted as a description of phase-out scenarios.

within the context of the ERB model, returning carbon-tax revenues to the GNP increases energy demand and makes such a tax less effective in stemming CO2 emissions. Hence, the emission reductions depicted on Fig. 7.35 as CTAX is increased would not be as strong.

Figure 7.36 shows the correlation of decreased global temperature rise in the year 2095 with increased utilization of nuclear power induced through the imposition of a carbon tax starting in the year 2005 with the indicated constant rate CTAX($/tonneC/15yr). Also shown is the corresponding increase in absolute and relative (to the BAU/BO basis scenario) PRI. The impact of changing the rate at which SE ^ FE conversion efficiency improves with time, sk (yr-1), is also shown; the BAU/BO basis scenario assumes sk is constant at 0.005 yr-1 up to the year 2005, and then linearly increases to 0.008 yr-1 by the year 2095.

fUTC Variations about BAU/BO Scenario

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fUTC Variations about BAU/BO Scenario

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Figure 7.33 Impacts of increasing or decreasing the capital cost of nuclear energy according to an exponential schedule have a time constant rUTC = 40 yr on CO2 emission rates and atmospheric accumulations; both the BAU/BO fuTC = 1.0) and BAU/PO fUTC = 3.0) conditions are indicated (Krakowski, 1999).

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Figure 7.33 Impacts of increasing or decreasing the capital cost of nuclear energy according to an exponential schedule have a time constant rUTC = 40 yr on CO2 emission rates and atmospheric accumulations; both the BAU/BO fuTC = 1.0) and BAU/PO fUTC = 3.0) conditions are indicated (Krakowski, 1999).

7.5.5 Comparative summary of E3 modeling results

A key goal of a study of the kind reported by Krakowski (1999) is a quantified assessment of the long-term E3 impacts of nuclear energy for a range of scenarios, including a phase out. Identification of key developmental and operational characteristics for global nuclear power that will maximize global benefits while minimizing nuclear dangers is an equally important goal of this study. Fulfillment of each goal is crucial to understanding the future of nuclear power, particularly in identifying roles to be played in mitigating greenhouse warming in a way that avoids the creation of equally or more burdensome long-term problems.

Percentage changes in most of the key E3 parameters reported up to this point as nuclear energy is made cheaper or more expensive through the f UTC cost algorithm have been collected in the form of a sensitivity diagram in

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CTAX($/tonneC/15yr) Variations c

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CTAX($/tonneC/15yr) Variations

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Figure 7.34 Impact of increasing the (linear) rate that carbon taxes are imposed after the year 2005 on nuclear-energy demand; comparisons are made with recent IAEA high (HV), medium (MV), and low (LV) variant projections (Krakowski, 1999; IAEA, 1999), which are based on an IIASA/WEC study (Nakicenovic et al., 1995); the BAU/BO basis scenario corresponds to CTAX = 0.0 (Krakowski, 1999).

IAEA/MV

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Figure 7.34 Impact of increasing the (linear) rate that carbon taxes are imposed after the year 2005 on nuclear-energy demand; comparisons are made with recent IAEA high (HV), medium (MV), and low (LV) variant projections (Krakowski, 1999; IAEA, 1999), which are based on an IIASA/WEC study (Nakicenovic et al., 1995); the BAU/BO basis scenario corresponds to CTAX = 0.0 (Krakowski, 1999).

Fig. 7.37. All parameters give the percentage change for the year 2095 and are referenced to the f UTC = 1.0 BAU/BO basis scenario. Table 7.8 defines key variables and lists the BAU/BO (2095) normalizing values for key parameters. The relative (percentage) change in CO2 emission rates, AR (again in the year 2095), as well as the percentage change in atmospheric CO2 inventories, A^CO2 are given. The present value of world aggregated GNP, expressed relative to the basis scenario in the year 2095, is also given in Fig. 7. 37 as AGNP(PV). In magnitude, these GNP changes amount to fractions of a percent and are small compared to potential costs of global warming (Nordhaus, 1991a,b; Repetto and Austin, 1997), or the cost of direct carbon taxes to induce the use of reduced-carbon energy sources by making fossil fuels more expensive. Figure 7.37 also gives the relative (to the basis scenario) percentage variations of the fraction fNE of PE comprised of nuclear energy, the fraction fEE of PE that is converted to electricity, the global warming potential, AT, and proliferation-risk potential, APRI. The dependence of the NE share,fNE, onfUTC indicates

CTAX($/tonneC/15yr) Variations about BAU/BO Scenario o

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CTAX($/tonneC/15yr) Variations about BAU/BO Scenario o

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Figure 7.35 Impact of increasing the (linear) rate that carbon taxes are imposed after the year 2005 on CO2 emission rates and atmospheric accumulations; the BAU/BO basis scenario corresponds to CTAX = 0.0, and CTAX = 30 $/tonneC/15yr is adopted for the ED scenarios (Krakowski, 1999).

that a high effective "elasticity" of ~2.5 relates demand to capital cost of nuclear energy (Krakowski, 1999).

The direct correlation between accumulated CO2 and total plutonium, and between the related AT and PRI metrics in the year 2095, as the carbon tax rate is varied, is shown in Fig. 7.36. To express parametric sensitivities of key system variables to the carbon-tax rate, CTAX($/tonneC/15yr), used to generate the ED/BO and ED/PO scenarios, the total present value (1990, r = 0.04 yr) of all collected carbon taxes is expressed relative to the total present value of the Gross World Product, with both being taken out to the year 2095. The resulting fraction,/TAX, is used to express the sensitivities of the same variables displayed on Fig. 7.37 in terms of percentage changes in the year 2095 relative to the BAU/BO values (Table 7.8). The resulting sensitivity plot is given in Fig. 7.38, which also includes a curve that correlates /TAX with the CTAX driving function. Figure 7.38 is the orthonormal component of Fig. 7.37 insofar as relating the key scenarios drivers used in this study.

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