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Figure 7.27 Time evolution of the six primary energies for the BAU/BO basis scenario, showing each cumulatively; a comparison with three IAEA scenarios (high variant, medium variant, and low variant) (Wagner, 1997) is shown.

ERB model described in Fig. 7.26. The primary-energy (PE) demand for each of six PE categories is given as a function of time on Fig. 7.27 for the BAU/BO basis scenario; a comparison with a recent IAEA study (Wagner, 1997), which largely followed the IIASA study (Nakicenovic, 1995), is also included. The demand for nuclear energy corresponding to this BAU/BO basis scenario is given in Fig. 7.19, which, in addition to comparing with the IAEA "new realities study" (Wagner, 1997), also gives results from a recent NEA (OECD, 1998a) study. After the year 2060, nuclear-energy demand is dominated by the developing (DEV) countries, with China being a major contributor to this demand. Generally, the world nuclear-energy demand for the BAU/BO basis scenario tracks closely that reported by the medium variant (MV) case considered by the IAEA "new realities study" (Wagner, 1997).

The global nuclear-materials (NM) accumulations and carbon-dioxide emissions consequences of this BAU/BO scenario are depicted in Figs. 7.28 and 7.29, respectively. The buildup of plutonium in the four forms described above is shown. Two key metrics adopted for this study are the accumulated

Figure 7.28 Evolution of world plutonium inventories for the BAU/BO basis scenario. Total inventory accumulations in four categories: once-exposed spent fuel, ACC; fully recycled (NCYC = 3) spent fuel, REC; in-reactor plutonium, REA, and separated plutonium, SEP = REP + FF; the time evolution of two (relative) proliferation metrics, (u) and PRI, are also shown for thisfMOX = 0.3 basis scenario (Krakowski, 1999).

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Figure 7.28 Evolution of world plutonium inventories for the BAU/BO basis scenario. Total inventory accumulations in four categories: once-exposed spent fuel, ACC; fully recycled (NCYC = 3) spent fuel, REC; in-reactor plutonium, REA, and separated plutonium, SEP = REP + FF; the time evolution of two (relative) proliferation metrics, (u) and PRI, are also shown for thisfMOX = 0.3 basis scenario (Krakowski, 1999).

plutonium (according to time, form, and region; Fig. 7.28) and the accumulated atmospheric carbon dioxide, as estimated using integral response functions (Hasselmann et al., 1995) in conjunction with the emission rates generated by the ERB model (Fig. 7.29). The correlation of world plutonium accumulation with atmospheric CO2 accumulations (W0 = 594 GtonneC in year ~ 1800) is shown in Fig. 7.30 and expressed in terms of the four plutonium categories. For the assumed (exogenous) growths in population (Bos et al., 1995) andper-capita GDP (Nakicenovic, 1995), demands for both nuclear and fossil energy correspondingly increase for this BAU/BO basis scenario. Consequently, both plutonium and atmospheric carbon dioxide accumulate; Fig. 7.30 shows an "operating curve" that represents a "signature" for any given scenario (e.g., the transparently proclaimed set of scenario attributes in Fig. 7.26). At a lower level, the plutonium masses can be expressed in terms of PRI, and the impact of accumulated CO2 can be estimated in terms of A7(K). Such a "second-level" correlation is given in Fig. 7.31, which also indicates how o o

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