Baubo

CO2 Accumulation, W/Wo

Figure 7.30 Correlation of world plutonium accumulation with atmospheric CO2 accumulations (Wo = 594 GtonneC in year ~ 1800) expressed in four categories: once-exposed spent fuel, ACC; fully recycled (NCYC = 3) spent fuel, REC; in-reactor plutonium, REA, and separated plutonium, SEP = REP + FF (Krakowski, 1999).

the case where fUTC = 3.0 was adopted in the IAEA E3 consultancy study (Krakowski, 1999; IAEA, 1999) as a description of the phase-out (PO) scenarios. The associated impacts on CO2 emissions are shown in Fig. 7.33. An ultimate reduction of 75% in nuclear energy capital cost is sufficient to reach the IAEA/HV projection (Wagner, 1997). Cost increases by factors of 3-4 (relative to the BAU/BO conditions) are required to all but eliminate nuclear energy from the mix of primary energy suppliers. Even for these levels of cost increases, the nature of the logit-share functions used in the ERB model (Edmonds and Reilly, 1985) (contrary to "knife-edge" pricing decisions made under most linear-programming algorithms used in the technology or process-based "bottom-up" global E3 models), and the increasing cost of fossil fuels driven by depletion of resources, together do not force a total foreclosure of the market share for nuclear energy. While CO2 emissions rise somewhat when nuclear energy is all but removed from the energy mix (Fig. 7.33), this modest increase generally reflects the small share of nuclear energy in the primary-

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