The BRICS countries

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One of the most important recent developments in the world economy is the increasing economic integration of large OECD non-member countries, in particular Brazil, the Russian Federation, India, China and South Africa, the so-called BRICS countries. Already, the BRICS represent over one-fourth of world GDP, up from 18% in 1990. In 2007, these five countries represented 30% of global energy use and 33% of CO2 emissions from fuel combustion (Figure 16). These shares are likely to rise further in coming years, if the ongoing strong economic performance currently enjoyed by most of these countries continues, as many commentators expect. In fact, China, the Russian Federation and India are already three of the four countries that emit the most CO2 emissions in absolute terms.

This brief discussion focuses on the BRICS countries, of which only the Russian Federation is a member of Annex I. Each of these countries has very different endemic resources, energy supply constraints and sectoral consumption patterns. Consequently, the issues relating to CO2 emissions that these five countries are facing are quite different.

Figure 16. The growing importance of the BRICS countries

Gt CO2

Figure 16. The growing importance of the BRICS countries

Key point: With the exception of the Russian Federation, the BRICS countries represent a growing share of CO2 emissions in the world.

Brazil

Brazil is the fifth largest emitter of GHGs in the world, with the particularity that the country's energy system has a relatively minor impact on GHG emissions (only 19%). The bulk of Brazilian GHG emissions (81%) come, instead, from agriculture, land-use and forestry activities, mainly through the expansion of agricultural frontiers in the Amazon region.

Figure 17. Brazil: CO2 emissions by sector

Mt CO2 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50

Figure 17. Brazil: CO2 emissions by sector

Mt CO2 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

□ Electricity and heat

□ Manuf. ind. and construction

□ Residential

□ Other energy industries

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

2007

□ Electricity and heat

□ Manuf. ind. and construction

□ Residential

□ Other energy industries

Compared to the Russian Federation, China and India, CO2 emissions from fuel combustion in Brazil are small, representing only 1.2% of global CO2 emissions from fuel combustion. Brazil's energy matrix is one of the cleanest in the world with renewables accounting for 45% of TPES. Brazil is also one of the world's largest producers of hydropower. Within the energy sector, the sub-sectors that contribute the most to total GHG emissions - the transport sector (42% in 2007) and the industrial sector (31%) - are also the ones that are likely to grow the most over the next years.

Electricity generation relies heavily on hydropower. Over the last three decades, the number of major dams has grown steadily and hydropower accounted for 84% of the total in 2007. Many of Brazil's hydropower generating facilities are located far away from the main demand centres, resulting in high transmission and distribution losses. Droughts in recent years have led to a wider diversification in the electricity production mix, increasing the use of gas. In 2008, the government announced plans to build two new hydroelectric plants along Brazil's borders with Argentina and Bolivia, representing 12 GW of new generation capacity. In addition, Suez Energy won a tender to build a 3.3 GW hydropower plant near Brasilia. However, unclear regulation of the power sector remains a source of concern. Environmental issues have also delayed some of the large hydropower projects.

Figure 18. Brazil: Electricity generation by fuel

Key point: The transport sector produces the largest share of CO2 emissions from fuel combustion in Brazil.

500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2007

□ Coal/peat mOil aGas aNuclear OHydro "Other

Key point: Brazilian electricity generation draws heavily on hydropower.

In 2007, the Brazilian government announced the development of five new nuclear power plants amid concerns about the risk of power-supply shortages

Figure 18. Brazil: Electricity generation by fuel

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2007

□ Coal/peat mOil aGas aNuclear OHydro "Other

beyond 2012 unless Brazil builds new capacity. The government's 2030 National Energy Plan anticipates 5.3 GW of additional installed generation capacity from new nuclear plants (Angra 3 and four other plants) by 2030. Moreover, electricity produced from cogeneration, mainly from sugarcane bagasse, is to make up 11.4% of the country's electricity supply by 2030.

Biofuels supply a comparatively significant share of the energy consumed for road transport (Figure 19). As such, Brazilian transport has a relatively low CO2 emissions intensity.18 CO2 emissions per unit of fuel consumed in road traffic are 10% lower than the world average (2.6 versus 2.9 t CO2 per toe).

Figure 19: Share of biofuels energy in road transport (2007)

United States European Union Brazil

Key point: Brazil's relative consumption of biofuels far outstrips that of any other country.

Brazil is the world's largest exporter and consumer of fuel ethanol from sugarcane.19 In 2007, Brazil produced 390 000 bbl/d of ethanol, up from 306 000 bbl/d in 2006. Currently, cars that can run on either 100% ethanol or a gasoline-anhydrous ethanol blend represent more than 80% of the new cars purchased in Brazil (an estimated 1.3 million in 2006) and cost the same as cars that can only run on conventional fuel. The commercial viability of biofuels in Brazil reflects both an economy well-suited to large-scale sugarcane production and several decades of government intervention through the Brazilian Alcohol Programme (Proalcool) launched in the 1970s. The government

18. Box 2 provides a more complete discussion on the advantages and limitations of using biofuels to replace oil. Note: CO2 emissions intensity considers the tank-to-wheel emissions and assumes that the CO2 emissions derived from the combustion of biomass are zero.

19. In 2005, the United States displaced Brazil as the largest ethanol producer, although mainly derived from corn and not sugarcane.

offered a variety of incentives, including low-interest loans to build distilleries and favourable pricing relative to gasoline. Mandatory ethanol blending targets were set up for 1977 (4.5% of the gasoline, by volume) and during the 1980s (20-25%). After experiencing severe problems in the 1990s,20 the program has now become the largest commercial application of biomass for energy production and use in the world.

Brazil's profile as an energy producer will be transformed in the medium term, following the discovery in November 2007 of a major deepwater oilfield in the Santos Basin. Brazil's oil and gas reserves are currently estimated at 14 billion barrels.

Russian Federation

The Russian Federation is the only one of the BRICS countries where CO2 emissions fell between 1990 and 2007, with a 27% drop over the period. The economic downturn after the break-up of the Former Soviet Union caused emissions to fall by 34% between 1990 and 1998. CO2 emissions grew in 1999 and 2000 (3% a year) due to the Russian Federation's strong economic recovery, stimulated by the increase in world energy prices. CO2 emissions remained fairly constant for the next five years. After a 4% increase in 2006, the CO2 emissions were stable in 2007. The World Energy Outlook projects the Russian Federation CO2 emissions will continue to increase steadily, and in 2030 will represent around 90% of the estimated 1990 level.

CO2 emissions from fuel combustion in the Russian Federation have stabilised following the collapse of the Former Soviet Union. However, other sources of greenhouse gases, in particular CH4 emissions from leaks in the oil and gas transmission/distribution system and CO2 emissions from flaring of associated gas represent an important share of the Russian GHG

20. By the mid-1980s more than three-quarters of the 800 000 cars could run on ethanol. However, when sugar prices rose sharply in 1989, sugarcane growers diverted crops to the export market, and a severe shortage of ethanol occurred in the second quarter of 1989. This shortage resulted in a loss of consumer confidence in the security of ethanol supply and discredited ProAlcool. In response, the government authorised ethanol imports and Brazil became the world's largest importer of ethanol. Brazilian drivers as well as Brazilian car makers were left in disarray for lack of fuel and, as a result, ethanol fell into discredit for some time. By the end of the 1990s, the sales of ethanol-fuelled cars amounted to less than 1% of total annual auto sales because fuel manufacturers could not assure hydrous-ethanol consumers security of supply. The turning points took place in the late 1990s with the price liberalisation of ethanol and sugar and in 2003 when car manufacturers (beginning with Volkswagen) introduced the "flex fuel" car, which gave consumers the choice and resilience to buy any combination of the cheapest fuel while protecting them from any fuel shortages. Over the whole period, industry was able to achieve remarkable improvements in productivity and cost reductions.

emissions. To effectively reduce GHG emissions from energy, these two problems would also need to be addressed.

Figure 20. Russian Federation: CO2 emissions by sector

Mt CO2 25GG

Figure 20. Russian Federation: CO2 emissions by sector

Mt CO2 25GG

—I-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-11990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2007

□ Electricity and heat

□ Manuf. ind. and construction

□ Residential

□ Other energy industries

—I-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-11990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2007

□ Electricity and heat

□ Manuf. ind. and construction

□ Residential

□ Other energy industries

Key point: CO2 emissions in the Russian Federation have remained fairly constant over the last ten years.

In 2007, the electricity and heat generation sector represented 55% of Russian CO2 emissions, compared to a global average of 41%. Within this sector, 48% of the electricity was generated by natural gas, 17% by coal and only 2% by oil.

Figure 21. Russian Federation: Electricity generation by fuel

1000 800 600 400 200

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2007 □ Coal/peat □ Oil DGas ONuclear DHydro «Other

Key point: A large portion of the Russian Federation's electricity and heat generation come from non-emitting (nuclear and hydro) or low-emitting (natural gas) sources.

Figure 21. Russian Federation: Electricity generation by fuel

1000 800 600 400 200

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2007 □ Coal/peat □ Oil DGas ONuclear DHydro «Other

21. Optimising Russian Natural Gas: Reform and Climate Policy, IEA, 2006.

Of the BRICS countries, in 2007, the Russian Federation had the highest CO2 emissions per capita (11.2 t CO2), which put it close to the average of OECD member countries (11.0 t CO2). In terms of CO2/GDP, the Russian Federation's economy remains CO2 intensive with 1.0 kg CO2 per unit of GDP, more than 2.5 times higher than the OECD average. Canada, whose geography and natural resources are comparable to those of the Russian Federation, has a carbon intensity of 0.5 kg CO2/US$ - half of the Russian Federation's level. However, IEA statistics show a reduction of the Russian Federation's energy intensity of GDP of about 5% per year since 1998. It is not clear how much this can be attributed to energy efficiency improvements as opposed to the dramatic increase in GDP due to the Russian Federation's much higher oil and gas-based export earnings.

India

India emits nearly 5% of global CO2 emissions, and emissions continue to grow. As with China, CO2 emissions have more than doubled between 1990 and 2007 and the World Energy Outlook projects that CO2 emissions in India will more than double between 2007 and 2030 (increasing by 4.1% per year). A large share of these emissions is produced by the electricity and heat sector, which represented 56% of CO2 in 2007, up from 42% in 1990. The transport sector, which was only 9% of CO2 emissions in 2007, is growing relatively slowly compared to other sectors of the economy.

Figure 22. India: CO2 emissions by sector

Mt CO2 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2007

□ Electricity and heat aOther energy industries

□ Manuf. ind. and construction ^Transport

□ Residential BOther

Key point: The bulk of CO2 emissions in India come from the electricity and heat generation sector and its share is continuing to grow.

Figure 22. India: CO2 emissions by sector

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2007

□ Electricity and heat aOther energy industries

□ Manuf. ind. and construction ^Transport

□ Residential BOther

In 2007, 68% of electricity came from coal, another 8% from natural gas and 4% from oil. The share of fossil fuels in the generation mix grew from 73% in 1990 to 85% in 2002. Since then the share of fossil fuels has declined steadily, falling to 81% in 2007. Although electricity produced from hydro has actually increased during this period, the share fell from 25% in 1990 to 15% in 2007. India is promoting the installation of other renewable power sources into its generation mix. India had an installed capacity of 13 GW of renewable energy sources on 31 August 2009. Under its National Action Plan on Climate Change, India plans to install 20 GW of solar power by 2020. With an installed wind capacity of 10 GW in July 2009,22 India has the fifth largest installed capacity of wind power in the world.

Figure 23. India: Electricity generation by fuel

Figure 23. India: Electricity generation by fuel

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2007 □ Coal/peat DOil OGas ONuclear OHydro «Other

900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2007 □ Coal/peat DOil OGas ONuclear OHydro «Other

Key point: About two-thirds of India's electricity comes from coal.

Of the BRICS countries, India has the lowest CO2 emissions per capita (1.2 t CO2 in 2007), about one-fourth that of the world average. However, due to the recent large increases in emissions, the ratio is more than one and a half times that of 1990 and will continue to grow. But India's per capita emissions in 2030 will still be well below those in the OECD member countries today.

In terms of CO2/GDP, India has continuously improved the efficiency of its economy and reduced the CO2 emissions per unit of GDP by 21% between 1990 and 2007.

China

With six billion tonnes of CO2 in 2007 (21% of global emissions), Chinese emissions surpass by far those of the other BRICS countries - in fact, China overtook the United States in 2007 as the world's largest emitter of energy-related CO2. Chinese CO2 emissions have almost tripled between 1990 and 2007. The increase was especially large in the last five years (16% in 2003, 19% in 2004, 11% in both 2005 and 2006 and 8% in 2007). The World Energy Outlook Reference Scenario projects that the growth in Chinese emissions will slow down to 2.9% per year up to 2030. Even with this slower growth, emissions in 2030 will be almost twice those in 2007.

Figure 24. China: CO2 emissions by sector

Mt CO2

7000

Figure 24. China: CO2 emissions by sector

Mt CO2

7000

3000 2000

—I-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-11990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2007

□ Electricity and heat

□ Manuf. ind. and construction

□ Residential

□ Other energy industries

3000 2000

—I-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-11990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2007

□ Electricity and heat

□ Manuf. ind. and construction

□ Residential

□ Other energy industries

Key point: For the last five years, China showed dramatic growth in CO2 emissions from electricity and heat generation.

Since 1990, the electricity and heat generation sector grew the most, representing 50% of Chinese CO2 emissions in 2007. The transport sector also grew rapidly, but from a much smaller base. The World Energy Outlook projects that the transport sector will continue to grow and will go from 7% of the energy demand in 2007 to 12% in 2030.

Chinese demand for electricity was the largest driver of the rise in emissions. The rate of capacity additions peaked in 2006, but in 2008 China still added over

90 GW of new capacity, equivalent to the total installed capacity of Italy. At the same time, it closed nearly 17 GW of small, inefficient fossil fuel-fired

22. According to the website of the Ministry of New and Renewable

Energy of the Government of India (http://mnes. nic. in).

23. China Electricity Council, China National Power Industry Statistics Flash Report 2008, January 2009.

plants,24 about the size of Finland's power sector. Figure 20 illustrates the growing demand for electricity generation and the large role played by coal. Nearly all (99%) of the 1990-2007 emissions growth from power generation derived from coal.

Figure 25. China: Electricity generation by fuel

Figure 25. China: Electricity generation by fuel

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

3Coal/peat oOil aGas nNuclear oHydro "Other

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

3Coal/peat oOil aGas nNuclear oHydro "Other

2007

Key point: Coal dominates China's electricity generation and its very fast growth.

In the past few decades, China had experienced a rapid decoupling of energy consumption and CO2 emissions from economic growth. During the 1980s, the central government in China reduced industrial energy intensity by establishing standards and quotas for the energy supplied to firms and had the authority to shut off the power supply when enterprises exceeded their limits.25 However, as the Chinese economy has moved towards an open-market operation, investment in energy conservation as a percentage of total energy investment has gradually declined.26 Especially since 2003, rapid expansion of heavy industrial sectors to serve huge infrastructure investments and burgeoning demand for Chinese products from domestic and overseas consumers pushed up demand for fossil fuels, and CO2 emissions per unit of GDP actually rose from 2003 to 2005. Still, the 2007 TPES/GDP is 57% less than in 1990, and a recent push by the government to reduce energy intensity has helped to resume the long-term intensity decline,

24. National Development and Reform Commission, National Energy Administration, State Environmental Protection Administration and China Electricity Council, Status of Nationwide Closures of Small Thermal Power Units, March 2009.

25. See the complete discussion in Trends in Energy Efficiency Investments in China and the US, Jiang Lin, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, 2005.

26. For a discussion on China's electricity sector, see also China's Power Sector Reforms, IEA, 2006.

albeit at a much slower rate than in the past. The increasing share of coal in power generation, however, means that a small decline in energy intensity may still be paired with an increase in emissions intensity, as was the case in 2003 and 2004. Although per capita emissions in China in 2007 were only about one-third that of the OECD average, they have more than doubled since 1990, with the largest increases occurring in the last five years.

South Africa

South Africa currently relies for a large part on fossil fuels as a primary energy source (88% in 2007); with coal providing most of that. Although South Africa accounted for 39% of CO2 emissions from fuel combustion in Africa in 2007, it represented only 1.2% of the global total. The electricity and heat sector produced 64% of South Africa's CO2 emissions in 2007.

Coal dominates the South African energy system, accounting for 72% of primary energy supply and nearly a quarter of final energy consumption. In 2007, South Africa generated 95% of its electricity using coal. It follows that the major climate change issue facing South Africa is to reduce its greenhouse-gas emissions, primarily by reducing its reliance on fossil fuels.

Figure 26. South Africa: CO2 emissions by sector

Mt CO2 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2007

□ Electricity and heat QOther energy industries

□ Manuf. ind. and construction □Transport

□ Residential BOther

Key point: The largest share of CO2 emissions in South Africa comes from the electricity and heat sector, but growth remains moderate compared to some of the other BRICS countries.

Prices of commercial forms of energy in South Africa are in general quite low by international standards. Given the relatively lower rate of electrification (about 88% in urban areas and only 55% in rural areas), the direct use of commercial forms of energy by households is more limited. Biomass, and especially wood, dominates energy use by rural

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2007

□ Electricity and heat QOther energy industries

□ Manuf. ind. and construction □Transport

□ Residential BOther households, generating health and safety problems as well as concerns about the sustainability of wood supplies. Over the last 17 years, per capita CO2 emissions in South Africa have remained fairly constant while emissions per unit of GDP have decreased by 15%.

Figure 27. South Africa: Electricity generation by fuel

Figure 27. South Africa: Electricity generation by fuel

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2007 □ Coal/peat QOil DNuclear DHydro «Other

Key point: South Africa relies almost solely on coal to produce its electricity.

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2007 □ Coal/peat QOil DNuclear DHydro «Other

Key point: South Africa relies almost solely on coal to produce its electricity.

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Global warming is a huge problem which will significantly affect every country in the world. Many people all over the world are trying to do whatever they can to help combat the effects of global warming. One of the ways that people can fight global warming is to reduce their dependence on non-renewable energy sources like oil and petroleum based products.

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