Uncertainty assessment

For Tier 1, the uncertainty in activity data needs to be determined for the reporting country and statistically combined with the uncertainty in the default emission factor. Typically, in a well operated facility, the default uncertainty in activity data should be in the region of 1 percent, assuming that rigorous accounting records are maintained and that production is monitored by weight. The actual emission factor may range from well in excess of the default value to zero. The default uncertainty of the default emission factors is therefore set at 100 percent, for example 0.5±0.5 (%).

For Tier 3 emissions, the uncertainty of the measurements should be determined individually and combined (using standard statistical methods) to provide a total uncertainty for the estimate. The methodology is identical to that described for HFC-23 from HCFC-22. In the Tier 2 methodology, the uncertainty both of the measurements of efficiencies and the assignment of losses to individual compounds should be assessed. Because these are liable to produce a much larger uncertainty than that from Tier 3, the utility of Tier 2 is likely to be limited to assessing whether or not by-product fluorochemical emissions are a significant subcategory under key category.

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