Select random value of Emission Factor from distribution

Select random value of Activity Data from distribution

Select random value of Emission Factor from distribution

Select random value of Activity Data from distribution

Select random value of Emission Factor from distribution

Select random value of Activity Data from distribution

Step 3 - Calculate Emissions in the conventional way

Select random value of Emission Factor from distribution

Select random value of Activity Data from distribution

Select random value of Emission Factor from distribution

Select random value of Activity Data from distribution

Select random value of Emission Factor from distribution

Select random value of Activity Data from distribution

Step 3 - Calculate Emissions in the conventional way

Step 4 - Iterate and monitor results

Store Emission , Total in [ database of 1 results

Step 4 - Iterate and monitor results

Store Emission , Total in [ database of 1 results

Calculate overall mean and uncertainty from database of results

Repeat Step 2

^More iterations required

Calculate overall mean and uncertainty from database of results

^More iterations required

Finished

Step 1: Specify category uncertainties. This includes estimation parameters and activity data, their associated means and PDFs, and any correlations. The uncertainties can be assessed following the guidance in Sections 3.2.1 and 3.2.2. For guidance on assessment of correlations, see 'Dependence and correlation among inputs' in this section and Box 3.2.

Step 2: Select random variables. Select input values. Input values are the estimates applied in the inventory calculation. This is the start of the iterations. For each input data item, a number is randomly selected from the PDF of that variable.

Step 3: Estimate emissions and removals. The variables selected in Step 2 are used to estimate annual emissions and removals based on input values. Correlations of 100 percent are easy to incorporate, and good Monte Carlo packages allow other correlations to be included. Since the emission calculations should be the same as those used to estimate the national inventory, the Monte Carlo process could be fully integrated into the annual emission estimates.

Step 4: Iterate and monitor results. Iterate and monitor results. The calculated total from Step 3 is stored, and the process then repeats from Step 2. The results from the repetitions are used to calculate the mean and the PDF.

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