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= 21 , 827 people Ans 1.5.5 Graphical Comparison Method

In this method the population of the community of interest is plotted along with those of the populations of larger communities judged to be of similar characteristics as those of the given community. The plotting is such that the populations of the larger communities, which are at the values equal to or greater than those of the given community at the present time, are used to extend the plot of the given community into the future. For example, observe Figure 1.5.

The population data for City A is only known up to 1990, shown by the filled circle and dashed line. Its population needs to be estimated for the year 2020. The population data for two other larger cities considered to be similar to City A are available. At some time in the past, the population of City B had reached 17,000 and in 1990, it was about 18,000. The population of this larger city is therefore

Projected

Projected

Escuadra Obra

Year

FIGURE 1.5 Population estimate by graphical comparison.

Year

FIGURE 1.5 Population estimate by graphical comparison.

plotted in Figure 1.5 starting with 18,000 in 1990. The same treatment is given to the population of the other city, City C, which had a population of about 16,000 in 1990. Using the plotted curves for Cities B and C as a guide (graphical comparison), the curve for City A is extended. Its projected population by the year 2020 is shown by the dashed line and is approximately 24,800.

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