Forecasting for a Purpose Contextualised Forecasting

As this workshop showed, climate forecasting and its applications have matured considerably over the last few decades. There is excitement about the potential benefits our societies might reap from further research and development. Hence, this paper is titled 'Seasonal and inter-annual climate forecasting The new tool for increasing preparedness to climate variability and change in agricultural planning and operations'. We asked ourselves how 'new' are climate applications To answer this...

Vulnerability of the Agricultural Sector

Rosenzweig et al. (1993) presented some interesting results based on current production and change in simulated wheat yields under GCM climate change scenarios. For the GCM doubled CO2 climate change scenario, simulated yield increases in mid- to high-latitudes were caused by the positive physiological effects of CO2 and the lengthened growing season. In contrast, decreases in simulated yields were caused by shortening of optimum growth periods due to higher temperatures, decreases moisture...

References

A. 1997, 'Vulnerability of agronomic systems in Bulgaria', Climatic Change 36, 135-149. Beniston, M., Tol, R. S. J., Delcolle, R., Hormann, G., Iglesias, A., Innes, J., McMichael, A. J., Martens, A. J. M., Nemesova, I., Nicholls, R. J. and Toth, F. L. 1998, 'Europe', in Watson, R. T., Zinyowera, M. C. and Moss, R. H. (eds.), The Regional Impacts of Climate Change - An Assessment of Vulnerability, Special Report of Working Group II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,...

What Leisa Farmers do and may do

Climate variability and related disasters can be mitigated by temporary or permanent protective measures or by avoidance strategies that try to escape the peak values or their consequences. These are all aspects of preparedness strategies. We have indicated above that i. heavy moisture flows or the lack of water, ii. changing heat flows and related temperatures, iii. cropping seasons' climate distributions are the meteorological climatological factors we should particularly deal with in this...

Introduction

Agricultural meteorology is an applied science that brings together the effects of the climate and weather on the production of crops, livestock and forests. Our lives are closely affected by daily and annual variability in climate. The agricultural community is no exception. Farmers are affected by the extremes in climate and its variability that often lead to wide interannual fluctuations in yields and productivity. In many parts of the world climatic variability is large, creating...

Impacts of Climate Variability on Agriculture and Forestry

Agriculture and forestry, due to their direct dependence on climate and weather, are two of the widely studied sectors in the context of climate change. There are two aspects of climate change on agriculture firstly, the potential direct effect of increased CO2 and secondly, the potential effects of changes in temperature, precipitation. The changes in climate parameters could also have an influence on factors constraining their growth such as soil quality, pests, and diseases. Either in the...

Adaptation Potential in the Arid and Semi Arid Tropics

Adaptation to climate change in arid and semi-arid tropics of Asian countries depends on the cost of adaptive measures, existence of appropriate institutions, access to technology, and biophysical constraints such as land and water resource availability, soil characteristics, genetic diversity for crop breeding (e.g., development of heat-resistant rice cultivars), and topography. Adaptation measures designed to anticipate the potential effects of climate change could help to offset many of the...

In North America

Before discussing future projections, let's return to the state of Iowa and look at agricultural trends over the past century. Figures 1 and 2 presented time series of seasonal growing season temperatures and precipitation during the past century for the state of Iowa. How do they compare with corn yields for Iowa during the same period Figure 6 presents the time series for corn yields during 1895-2002 for the state of Iowa, revealing some interesting comparisons. First, there are three...

The References Of Climate Variability

M., and Cutforth, H. W. 1999, 'Precipitation trends on the Canadian Prairies', J. Climatic 12, 2996-3003. Bootsma, A. 1994, 'Long-term (100 YR) climatic trends for agriculture at selected locations in Canada', Clim. Change 26, 65-88. Bootsma, A. 1997, 'A review of Impacts of Climate Variability and Change on Agriculture in Atlantic Canada', in Shaw, R. W. (ed.), 1997 Climate Change and Climate Variability in Atlantic Canada, Workshop Proceedings, 3-6 December 1996,...

The Ranet System

RANET depends on four critical steps to move information from capital cities to rural communities information gathering and integration, satellite transmission, reception and interpretation, and dissemination (see Figure 1). First, scientists at the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the African Center of Meteorological Applications for Development (ACMAD), National Meteorological Services (NMSs) in Africa, and RANET partners gather vital climate, weather, and food...

Setting the Scene

In the tropics and sub-tropics, CV is a major source of agricultural production variability (e.g., Hammer et al., 1987 Dilley, 2000). Although most dramatic at the farm level, this effect of CV is apparent throughout entire economies and can even affect macroeconomic indicators such as international wheat prices, employment statistics or currency exchange rates (Chapman et al., 2000b White, 2000a). In October 2002, media reports in Australia attributed half of the reported inflation rate to the...

Opportunities for Increasing Soil C Sequestration

A number of agricultural land management practices have shown potential for increasing C contentin agricultural soils (Desjardins et al., 2001b). Table I summarizes some of the results reported in the literature. These data are either based on measured or modeled values. As shown by Smith et al. (2001), a range of values are associated with most management practices. This range depends on soil texture, soil taxonomy, climatic conditions, and many other factors. The practices in Table I are...

Impacts of Climate Variability and Change in the Arid and Semi Arid Tropics

As reported in IPCC (1998), stress on water availability in Asia is likely to be exacerbated by climate change. Several studies aimed at understanding the nature and magnitude of gains losses in the yield of particular crops at selected sites in Asia under elevated CO2 conditions have been reported in the literature (e.g., Luo and Lin, 1999). These studies suggest that, in general, areas in mid- and high-latitudes will experience increases in crop yield, whereas yields in areas in the lower...

Features of Agriculture and Forestry in the Humid and Sub Humid Tropics

Agriculture is very important for most countries in the humid and the sub-humid tropics. Take tropical Asia as an example. In tropical Asia, agriculture is a key economic sector. In 1993, ithad employed more than half of the labor force, accounting for 10-63 of the GDP in most countries of the region (IPCC, 1998). Substantial foreign exchange earnings also are derived from exports of agricultural products. Climate-sensitive crops - such as rice, other grains and cereals, vegetables, and spices...

Impact of Soil Management Practices on the Net GHG Fluxes

As we have discussed, several agricultural practices have great potential to increase carbon sequestration, and in some cases, decrease the net emissions of GHG. However, to date, very few field studies have been made that simultaneously examine C sequestration together with the other GHG emissions. Hence, we often have to rely on model estimates. The following analysis relies extensively on the application of the soil carbon model CENTURY Parton et al., 1993 , and on the estimation of N2O...