Warning System Design

tte EWS-Fire needs to address two distinct issues: 1) to establish a methodology to use forecasted weather to provide predicted fire danger, and 2) it must also provide a means of interpreting the fire danger in practical and locally relevant fire management terms, ttese criteria imply that the FDRS used for the EWS-Fire must have fairly simple and reasonably predictable weather inputs over the forecasted range, and it must be possible to locally calibrate the fire danger indices, tte following steps are envisaged, with additional detail provided by de Groot et al (2006):

• Review and summarize literature and data on global fire activity to assess risk to global communities and areas of priority.

• Adapt a current risk monitoring system for global application, using the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System (FWI) in a prototype (Figure 20.2).

• Develop protocols for utilizing state of the art (0-10 day) global weather forecasting models for fire danger prediction.

• With latest numerical weather prediction ensemble prediction techniques, adapt FWI System to operate in a forecasting mode providing probability of event characteristics.

• Utilize historical satellite detected hotspot and archived numerical analysis of FWI to provide: further calibration of the FWI system for early warning purposes; a fire status product (where current fire problems are and basis to assess severity of forecasted fire danger conditions); and historical records of fire danger and behaviour regionally and globally.

• Studies to assess form and utility of products with end users and their social and economic impacts.

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