tte climate system in the southwest Pacific provides a large source of interannual to multidecadal fluctuations beneath a theme of regional climate warming, ttese provide challenges especially to coping strategies for agrometeorology in the region. tte El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) provides a large source of seasonal to interannual variability across the region promoting seasons of floods and droughts, and warmer and cooler seasons at higher latitudes (Trenberth and Caron 2000).
tte Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) (Trenberth and Hurrell 1994; De-ser et al. 2004) is an important source of multidecadal climate fluctuations, ttese cause shifts in climate across the region. With this better understanding of the climate system of the region, these modes place a range of natural variability on the anthropogenic factors that will promote warming in the region during the 21st century. tte latest IPCC projections (IPCC 2001) from the entire range of 35 IPCC scenarios place temperature increases in the range of 1.4 to 5.8°C by the end of the 21st century, with likely increases in heavy rainfall events and drought. It is the impact of the sources of variability and change on extreme events, such as floods, droughts, tropical cyclones and heatwaves that are significant, ttese will pose challenges for agriculture and forests to cope with future variability and change in the southwest Pacific.
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