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Step B - Risk Characterization and Evaluation

For each of the risk events identified in 1.2.1 above, scenarios are developed in order to provide a basis for estimating the likelihood of each risk event, for present conditions and into the future if change is anticipated, for example as a consequence of climate change, tte extent to which the climate changes into the future will influence the probability of the risk event occurring, tte consequences of a given risk event are quantified in terms of individual and annualized costs, tte overall findings are compiled into a risk profile.

Step C - Risk Management

In this step a number of questions are asked - all are with reference to the targets agreed in 1.2.1 above. Actions taken depend on the responses to a series of questions.

Fig. 1.3. Generic methodology for characterizing and managing risks.

Risk Scoping

Risk Characterization and Evaluation

Risk Management

Communication and Consultation

Consequences of Risk Events

• Quantify individual and annualized costs of risk events

Likelihoods of Risk Events

• Extreme rainfall

■ Excessive temperatures

Likelihoods of Risk Events

• Extreme rainfall

■ Excessive temperatures

Consequences of Risk Events

• Quantify individual and annualized costs of risk events

Risk Acceptable?

Identify and Cost Management Options

Reduce Likelihood

Reduce Likelihood

Avoid the Risk

Implement, Monitor & Review Cost Effective Management

Reduce Consequence

• Plant drought-tolerant crops, etc

Fig. 1.4. Procedures for characterizing and managing risks, and their application to the agriculture sector.

Is the risk acceptable? - If "yes", it is appropriate to continue with current management approaches, ttese should include monitoring and reviewing as the acceptability of the risk may change over time into the future. If "no", risk management options are identified, and assessed in terms of costs and benefits.

Are the current risk management options adequate? - If "yes", it is appropriate to continue with the current approaches. Again, these include monitoring and reviewing, in part due to the possibility that the acceptability of the risk may change over time. If "no", one or more of the following risk management strategies should be implemented:

• Take actions to reduce the likelihood of the risk event occurring. For example, reduce greenhouse gas emissions by the agriculture sector and thereby reduce the rate of climate change and the resulting increased frequency of risk events such as drought and frosts.

• Avoid the risk. For example, avoid planting crops in areas that are exposed to risk events of concern.

• Redistribute the risk. For example, provide access to crop insurance cover or ensure disaster relief programmes are in place.

• Reduce the consequences. For example, plant drought tolerant crops if drought is a risk event of concern.

Step D - Monitoring and Review tte next step is to implement the risk management programme, and monitor and review the risk management outcomes in relation to the agreed targets. If the targets are not met it will be necessary to repeat one or more of the following steps: i) identify the problem and formulate a response plan; ii) enhance the quality of the risk characterization procedures and findings; and iii) enhance the quality of the risk management procedures and outcomes.

tte process of risk characterization and management is iterative, to ensure that the quality of the outcomes are always consistent with the risk reduction targets that are established, reviewed, revised and reaffirmed through consultative processes.

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