Global Crop Assessment Methods and Risk Reduction Tools and Analysis

Summary and analysis of temperature and precipitation data during crop cycles constitute the primary and most significant meteorological input into crop estimation each month, ttese data are presented in several ways to evaluate their impact on crops as they progress from planting to harvest. Data typically are presented for the year in question and compared against long-term norms and analog years. Selection of analog years can be very helpful to bridge the often qualitative link between observed data and predicted crop yields.

Figures 9.1 and 9.2 illustrate a review of temperatures during the corn growing season in the Po Valley of northern Italy. Figure 9.1 summarizes the entire season-to-date, while Figure 9.2 focuses in on the temperature extremes during July with an overlay of the crop development stage to provide insight into the timing of the temperature extreme. From these two figures, and the focus on temperature extreme during silking, analysts can draw conclusions about the potential impact of high temperatures on yield.

Several approaches are used to evaluate the timing and quantity of rainfall, tte amount of rainfall is typically analyzed either as cumulative precipitation or as monthly total rainfall. Figure 9.3 illustrates simple cumulative rainfall for the season for Rio Grande do Sul in southern Brazil:

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