Conclusions

Risk and uncertainty affects every aspect of the agricultural commodity marketing system - from producer to final consumer. Weather-related yield and price risk translate into income risk in agricultural markets around the world. Accurate, timely, consistent, objective, and widely available information including analysis of the impacts of weather on crop production is critical for economic enterprises to make optimal business decisions, ttis paper reviews methods used at USDA to assess impacts of weather-related risk and uncertainty on global crop production as a first step toward estimating global supply and demand for commodities. More timely and accurate estimates result when multiple analytical techniques are employed to evaluate the impact of seasonal weather conditions on crops.

Legend

2006 better han 2002

2006 same as 2002

2006 worse than 2002

Soybean Areas

USDA Agricultural Research Service

760 Km

Remote Sensing Laboratory

Fig. 9.12 NDVI difference for 2002 vs. 2006.

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