Natural Disastersand Losses

Munich Re has one of the world's largest global databases on natural catastrophes, the Munich Re NatCatSERVICE. Currently, it contains entries for more than 23,000 individual natural events which have caused human suffering and or property losses. Figure 21.1 shows the development in the number of great natural disasters (causing billion dollar losses and or thousands of fatalities) since 1950, broken down into the different perils floods, windstorms, geophysical disasters (earthquakes,...

Discussion Conclusions

Coping actions with agrometeorological risks and uncertainties comprise appropriate decision making processes. Various strategic and response options can be taken by farmers as on-farm applications against risks. Site specific farm management systems can be used to prevent and mitigate potential risks, ttose on-farm applications require systematic and consistent observations of hazard-relevant parameters, quality assurance and proper archiving of the data, catalogued observational data sets...

Differentiation between income levels in poor areas of China

Ye (2002) defines a farmer initiative as the impetus that sufficiently and necessarily drives a farmer (or group of farmers) to formulate a realistic strategic plan, and to implement it in an attempt to create space for maneuver and to pursue change through changing social conditions. He lists the critical factors contributing to the process of various farmer initiatives in China as including trust, social networks, information derived from networks, past experiences, media and publications,...

Drought Risk Atlas

Tte goal of the drought risk atlas is to provide users with a comprehensive assessment of the history, frequency, intensity, duration, and trend of droughts over the past century on a site-specific basis, tte intent is to provide users with a tool to help them better understand and visualize their drought risk in order to make better long-term management decisions. An interactive web-based interface will allow producers, water managers, and decision makers to tap into a database containing...

Droughts

Stigter et al. (2007) have summarized contributions of the meteorological community to improved coping with drought in India supporting development efforts related to monsoon water use as a resource. Viet (2002) rates drought at a medium relative disaster rate intensity in the most vulnerable central highlands and the south of Vietnam. Changing cropping calendars and patterns appear the only solutions envisaged there in present planning exercises (Stigter et al. 2007). Sahni reports in Sahni...

Info

Protection ofcrops from cold injury and frost A key factor in protection of crops from cold injury is stable air temperature and snow covers throughout the winter, ttaws, resulting in packing or disappearing snow cover, worsen dormancy conditions and reduce or destroy the protective properties of snow cover, tte prevention of crop damage by frost can be controlled by breaking up the inversion that accompanies intense night time radiation, ttis may be achieved by heating the air by the use of...

Premise The concept of risk layering

Segmenting risk into different layers is a key risk management principle. Consider, for example, Figure 22.2, which shows the probability distribution for average April to October rainfall at thirteen weather stations in Malawi (Rejda 2001). Suppose that farmers start incurring production losses whenever rainfall is less than one thousand millimetres, tte domain of losses might be segregated into three risk layers, with different entities holding each layer For rainfall in excess of 700 mm,...

Structure ofindex insurance contracts

Tte terminology used to describe features of index insurance contracts resembles that used for futures and options contracts rather than for other insurance contracts. Rather than referring to the point at which payments begin as a trigger, for example, index contracts typically refer to it as a strike, ttey also pay in increments called ticks. Consider a contract being written to protect against deficient cumulative rainfall during a cropping season, tte writer of the contract may choose to...

Key recommendations to address identified weaknesses

A focus on identified weaknesses (many of which are already well documented and well known) would be sufficient, tte weaknesses are thus distilled into concrete recommendations intended to address one or more of the weaknesses. Figure 3.2 illustrates the weaknesses which are listed in order, with most frequently identified weaknesses at the bottom of the figure. Concrete actions around such recommendations, each shown by arrows to address one or more of the identified weaknesses, appear in the...

Regional Warming

Regional warming in the Southwest Pacific will pose significant challenges to agriculture and forestry. Although warming in the lower range will be beneficial, challenges will be posed if water is limiting. Warming in the upper range will pose significant challenges and it is these that are highlighted here. Warming and associated rainfall changes in Australia give varied impacts on wheat production regionally. Studies show that Western Australian regions are likely to have significant yield...

Policy instruments

Risk layering provides an helpful conceptual framework for thinking about government intervention in risk transfer markets, tte discussion of the market insurance layer described situations in which government packaging or pooling of risk could potentially reduce the transaction costs associated with risk transfer and thus the premiums paid by end users, ttis section explores other possible government interventions, including government facilitation of risk transfer in the market failure layer,...

Crop producers in Mississippi

Crop producers in Mississippi consider the multi-risk environment in their crop production as special challenges, ttey pay close attention to management strategies, whether what they manage are whole farms or otherwise, tte following are tested techniques from which producers can choose from to sustain farm operations for whole farm management Consider new crops and crop combinations, Diversify, match crops to soil capability and productivity, planting fields with low yield histories to...

The tradeoff between basis risk and transaction costs

Among the most significant issues for any insurance product is the question of how much monitoring and administration is needed to keep moral hazard and adverse selection to a minimum. To accomplish this goal, coinsurance and deductibles are used so that the insured shares the risk and any mistakes in offering too generous coverage are mitigated. Considerable information is needed to tailor insurance products and to minimize the basis risk even for individual insurance contracts. Increased...

References

Barnett BJ, Roy Black J, Hu Y, Jerry RS (2005). Is Area-Yield Insurance Competitive with Farm-Yield Insurance J Agric Res Econ 30 (2) 285-301. Burgaz FI (2004) II sistema delle assicurazioni agricole combinate in Spagna. In La Gestione Del Rischio in Agricoltura Strumenti E Politiche, ed. F. Filippis. Rome, Italy Coldiretti. Buzby IC, Kenkel PL, Skees IR, Pease IW, Benson, FI (1994) A Comparison of Subjective and Historical Yield Distributions with Implications for Multiple-Peril Crop...

Tillage Practices

Tillage is an essential management technique that provides a suitable seed bed for plant growth and in some areas of the world, the only non-chemical method to control weeds, tte tillage tools pulled upwards by a tractor are designed to apply an upward force to cut and loosen the compacted soil, sometimes to invert it and mix it. tte other main negative effect of driving a tractor across a field is compaction of the soil. Compaction may result in an increasing shear strength through an increase...

Crop improvement through varietal diversification including use ofcultivarshybrids adapted to changed environment

Varietal diversification implies that farmers select and maintain a diversified set of varieties for their major crops to manage risks as follows to spread the risk of loss due to period-specific stresses (e.g. brief periods of drought or insect population) as in the case of cultivating varieties with varying maturities permitting staggered planting to reduce the risk of pest and disease losses since there is genetic variability in resistance or tolerance to biotic stresses to cope with the...

Introduction

Tte climate system in the southwest Pacific provides a large source of interannual to multidecadal fluctuations beneath a theme of regional climate warming, ttese provide challenges especially to coping strategies for agrometeorology in the region. tte El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) provides a large source of seasonal to interannual variability across the region promoting seasons of floods and droughts, and warmer and cooler seasons at higher latitudes (Trenberth and Caron 2000). tte...

Impact reductions

Vulnerabilities to hazards can be seriously reduced by temporary or permanent measures leading to impact reduction. Ariyabandu reports in Sahni and Ariyabandu (2003) that in India for the first time in the last fifty years several state governments are dealing with drought in different ways, moving away from relief to mitigation, while in two states where this started decades ago it brought visible results. He also indicates that mitigation planning and development planning in effect share...

Early Warning Systems EWS

Over 800 million people, mostly in the developing world, are chronically undernourished, eating too little to meet minimal energy requirements (Fig. 26.6). Millions more suffer acute malnutrition during transitory or seasonal food insecurity. Over 200 million children suffer from protein-energy malnutrition and each year nearly 13 million under the age of five die as a direct or indirect result of hunger and malnutrition. tte essential purpose of EWS is to give decision makers sufficient time...

Drought Understanding Vulnerability

Recent droughts in developing and developed countries and the concomitant impacts and personal hardships that resulted have underscored the vulnerability of all societies to this natural hazard, ttis appears to be a clear sign of increasing societal vulnerability resulting from unsustainable resource use and growing pressures on natural resources. As noted previously, many factors are contributing to this trend. Adding to the concern regarding increasing societal vulnerability is distress over...

SPi for January 2006

Monthly monitoring of rainfall anomaly in the Brazilian territory as indicated by the SPI for 0ctober 05 to Ianuary 06. their duration (Figure 17.6 a and Figure 17.6 b), which is presented below in the sequence of figures corresponding the months from June 2005 to January 2006. Extreme precipitation negative indices as indicated by the SPI value were observed during this period up to the month ofNovember 2005. tte severe drought experienced in the southern regions of Brazil during...

Crop Insurance Programs in Developed Countries

Ttis section provides an overview of agricultural risk management programs in three developed countries the United States, Canada, and Spain. Substantial progress in developing commercial crop insurance markets has taken hold in these countries through which agricultural producers may reduce yield and revenue risk. While these programs offer a variety of risk management products for farmers, the programs require levels of government support unfeasible for most, especially developing, countries.

WAMISasa WebPortal

Tte main objective ofWAMIS is to provide a dedicated web server for disseminating agrometeorological products issued by WMO members. By providing a central location for agrometeorological information, WAMIS will aid users to quickly and easily evaluate the various bulletins and gain insight into improving their own bulletins. tte web site will also host training modules to further help Members improve the quality and presentation of their agrometeorological bulletins. - Dedicated WMO Web server...

Crop Insurance

In India crop insurance was considered by the central government as early in 1947-48. tte Indian government constituted an expert committee headed by Professor Dharam Narain, the Chairman, Agricultural Price Commission in 1970. A beginning in crop insurance was finally made in 1972 by implementing an experimental scheme for Hybrid-4 cotton in few districts of Gujarat State, tte scheme Damage to agriculture andpropertywas extensive. Damage to agriculture and property was extensive. Severe...

Types of coping strategies with agrometeorological risks and uncertainties for crop yield

Ttere is a wide variety of coping measures that producers farmers employ in the field, ttese can be categorized into the following optimal and sustainable use of resources change in cultural practices improved farming practices modification of resource potential, including controlled micro-climates local indigenous knowledge systems networks access to extension services technological innovations such as new modified approaches and others, such as resilience and divestment in natural capital.

High intensity rainfall and floods

Vulnerabilities to flood hazards can best be prevented by not using flood prone areas for agricultural production and related habitation. Flood hazard maps are essential tools for land use planning, ttey appear often unsuccessful but when followed up by actual management decisions on land use, these monitoring exercises are invaluable. As in many other cases of natural disasters, there are flood prone areas that nevertheless have to be used for agricultural production. Flood control and...

Requirements for DMSS Infrastructure

Agrometeorological products require diverse computer resources all through the processes such as data collection, processing, archiving, dissemination, etc. in a systematic way for better on-site application by farmers. Basic requirements for integrated system infrastructure can be listed as follows Hardware Systems. Servers for simulation models, databases, system analysis, high speed network framework, mass data storage and DBMS Information. Existing DB RS, agronomy, management, climate, etc....

Designing Crop and situation specific products

ICICI attempts to cover the entire crop cycle which is divided into phases, so that complete protection can be provided. Different phases may involve different weather parameters which are illustrated as follows In the early 20th century, Howard, a British Scientist at the Pusa Institute observed, 'Wheat cultivation in India is a gamble with temperature'. After analyzing the impacts that temperature has on wheat cultivation, ICICI Lombard had designed a Weather Insurance Product for wheat...

Where index insurance is inappropriate

As with traditional crop insurance, index insurance contracts are not suitable for all agricultural producers. Many agricultural commodities are grown in microclimates. For example, coffee grows on mountainsides in countries with varied climates, and fruit such as apples and cherries also commonly grow in areas with very large differences in weather patterns within only a few miles. In highly spatially heterogeneous production areas, basis risk will likely be so high as to make index insurance...

El Nio Southern Oscillation ENSO

El Ni o-Southern Oscillation events are a coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon. It is a natural feature of the climate system. El Ni o involves warming of surface waters of the tropical Pacific in the region from the International Date Line to the west coast of South America, with associated changes in oceanic circulation. It is accompanied by large changes in the tropical atmosphere, lowering pressures in the east and raising them in the west, in what is known as the Southern Oscillation. tte...

Expected impacts of climate change in Europe during this century

Wide ranging impacts of changes in current climate have been documented in Europe in the last decades, tte observed changes are consistent with projections of impacts due to anthropogenic climate change, tte warming trend and spatially variable changes in rainfall have already affected managed ecosystems (EEA 2005b). For instance the European heat wave in 2003 had major impacts on agricultural systems and society by decreasing the quantity and quality of the harvests, particularly in Central...

DB requirements

WAMIS grid portal should handle diverse data sources, formats, contents from synoptic data, forecasts(S,M,L), prognosis, adaption data, simulation models for crops, resource management, root zone dynamics, farm management, etc. It also has to take care of derived products such as climate change scenario, regional food demand production, etc. It indicates that WAMIS needs highly elaborated data handling and distribution mechanisms, including ontology, because it consists of various contents in...

EWSFire Proposal

Following the recommendations of the UN World Conference on Disaster Reduction (WCDR) in Kobe, Japan, January 2005, and the proposal of the UN Secre tary General to develop a Global Multi-Hazard Early Warning System (GEWS), a call for project proposals for building a GEWS was issued in preparation for the 3rd International Conference on Early Warning (EWC-III) (27-29 March 2006, Bonn, Germany), sponsored by the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction and the German Foreign...

Wildfires and bushfires

The necessary ingredients to maintain a fire are given in a fire triangle concept this concept portrays a triangle with each side sequentially labelled fuel, oxygen and heat, tte absence of fuel, oxygen or the heat produced causes the fire to burn out. Fire-fighting methods are based on breaking the triangle by cooling the heat component, smothering the oxygen or removing fuel, tte fuel component of the fire triangle merits consideration because it lends itself to modification at all times of...

Service Architecture

WAMIS grid portal will try to make best use of service-oriented architecture while employing all the fundamental requirements under WIS framework. Key service layers consist of application, metadata, replica, resource and publishing services (Fig. 12.4). ttis service architecture will be able to meet the GISC requirements in metadata catalogues, Internet portal with local administration, data acquisition, discovery, distribution services, monitoring, and synchronization. In addition,...

Conclusions

Government of India is concerned about improving the agricultural economy of the country irrespective of the existing status of infrastructure in a given area and to a certain extent, irrespective of the vagaries of weather too. It is essential that more inputs would be required for more vulnerable areas if development were to be carried out in a balanced manner across the country. All the existing services must be geared for that purpose, tte best form of risk management is planning to ensure...

Crop Management Strategies

Agronomic measure and strategies for soil conservation use the protective effect of plant cover to reduce erosion and soil loss. In considering effectiveness of crop management strategies, there are many factors that need to be considered such as type of crop or vegetation used in a crop rotation, tillage practices, landscape characteristics, rainfall magnitude and intensity. In general, row crops are less effective and may cause some erosion. In a 100 year study, land under continuous maize...

Risk Uncertainty and the Agricultural Marketing System

While yield risk and its impact on the producer is the first and most recognized source of uncertainty, myriad related impacts affect economic conditions throughout the marketing chain and must be considered when estimating global supply and demand. Directly or indirectly, each economic agent at every level of the global agricultural marketing system is affected by one or several of the risk types. Price and income effects stemming from a particular set of meteorological conditions in a given...

Managing Weather and Climate Risks in Agriculture

Sivakumar Agricultural Meteorology Division World Meteorological Organization 7bis, Avenue de la Paix 1211 Geneva 2 Switzerland Dr. Raymond P. Motha USDA OCE WAOB 1400 Independence Ave. SW Room 5133 Library of Congress Control Number 2007928832 ISBN 978-3-540-72744-6 Springer Berlin Heidelberg New York ttis work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of...

Crop Insurance in Developing Countries

In 2005, gross premium in India amounted to 95m. Crop insurance started there in 1972 and then developed in different phases, tte National Agriculture Insurance Scheme (NAIS by AIC) has provided insurance products in all states and to all farmers since 1999. tte main covers are yield guarantee and area yield, and a pilot project is under way for a product with a meteorological trigger, ttirty different crops can be insured during Kharif(SW monsoon, July-October), 25 crops during Rabi (winter...

What WMOCAgM should realize as implications ofthe above

We end this paper with what WMO CAgM should realize as implications of the above for the future of weather and climate information approaches and technologies in agricultural production. WMO (2006a) has very recently indicated what it sees for the role of weather and climate information approaches and technologies as key to future activities of the Commission. It starts with the warning that in developing countries there remain risks that very few high-level agrometeorological personnel and...

Climatology and Geography of South America

A fundamental aspect for being able to face risks and uncertainties, which South America confronts, is an understanding of its geographical location and climatology (IADB 2001). tte geographical location provides the main explanation for the extreme natural phenomena that cause great disasters in the region, ttis region is extremely prone to earthquakes and volcanic eruptions, because its territory is located on some tectonic plates, along the Pacific Ring of Fire. Climate variability is...

Coping Strategieswith Agrometeorological Risksand Uncertainties for Drought Examples in Brasil

T. daAnunciagao, L. T.G. Fortes, P. L. Abramides, G. C. Blain, A. P. C. Brunini, J. P. de Carvalho 17.2 Methodologies to Assess Precipitation Anomaly and Drought 286 ofDrought 304 17.3.3 Drought Monitoring and Mitigation Center 306 17.3.4 ClimaticRiskZoning 309 18 Coping Strategies with Desertification in China Wang Shili, Ma Yuping, HouQiong, Wang Yinshun 18.2.1 Status of Desertified Land 318 18.2.2 Status ofland most vulnerable to sand encroachment 319 18.2.3 Dynamic Changes...

Subject Index

ACIS, see applied climate information system actual - vapotranspiration standardized index - production history (APH) 382 afforestation 89 African meteorological service 43 agriculture agricultural - optimizationstrategies 144,156 - technological information 175 - system 163 agrometeorological - advisory service (AAS) 63, 65 - risk 77, 79, 191, 193, 206, 265, 476 - services 61, 183, 185, 433, 455 - uncertainties 58 agropastoral system in the Andes 219 agro-resourceenvironment 211 analogue year...

Warning System Design

Tte EWS-Fire needs to address two distinct issues 1) to establish a methodology to use forecasted weather to provide predicted fire danger, and 2) it must also provide a means of interpreting the fire danger in practical and locally relevant fire management terms, ttese criteria imply that the FDRS used for the EWS-Fire must have fairly simple and reasonably predictable weather inputs over the forecasted range, and it must be possible to locally calibrate the fire danger indices, tte following...

Tailored forecasts

Tte applicability of the climate forecasts depends so much to the extent to which the producers of the information had the users in mind while generating the information. In the current state, it is left to the general users to try and fit in climate forecasts into their activities. Hence the respondents highlighted the need for tailored forecasts that would make it easier for the users to make use of the information. ttese would imply that forecasts would aim at greater and more specific...

The Andes ofPeru andBolivia

In the agropastoral system in the Andes ofPeru and Bolivia (Valdivia et al. 2004), the following are the identified management strategies, to manage climatic risks, maximize use of resources and achieve multiple goals (e.g. food-security, etc.) - among crops, between crops and livestock, and non-agricultural access to forecasts and their use (even when there is limited use due to gaps constraints), use oflocal knowledge systems, resilience divestment in natural capital, and - specializing in...

Innovative ways to reach to the hinterland reduction of basis risk

A common issue faced at the field level while providing Weather Insurance is Basis risk. Most of ICICI's current weather stations owned and maintained by Indian Meteorology Department (IMD) are located at the district headquarters, but most of the agricultural activities are carried out in much interior locations. As a result, most of the time, ICICI was unable to measure weather data at precisely the customer location. To build up the network of weather stations in the interiors, ICICI Lombard...

Challenges to preparedness as a coping strategy

Stigter et al. (2003a) put forward the opinion that coping with flood disasters would gain from the same change of emphasis in the approach as took place in Japan with respect to earth quakes, ttey thought that in such an approach additional measures had to get focus and different questions would have to be asked with respect to preparing victims for the occurrence of floods. It was concluded from the Oris-sa super cyclone disaster in India that trying to build preparedness models maybe...

Risk and Risk Management in Agriculture

Basically, risk is the chance of something happening that will impact on the objectives of farmers. Chance implies uncertainty and hence risk management in agriculture basically involves managing uncertainty. As Hay (2007) explained, risk levels can change, including as a result of potentially detrimental changes in the climate (e.g. warming, decreasing rainfall). Changes in levels of exposure, due to altering levels of investment, also influence risk levels. Risk combines both the likelihood...

Planned System Development

Development of an operational EWS-Fire is proposed through three phases, tte overall system structure, including information technology and fire and weather science, is prepared during the system design phase. Establishment of standard operating procedures to provide and distribute daily early warning products will occur during the operational implementation phase. Finally, a technology transfer phase will facilitate sustainability of system operations and ensure applicability of the system to...

The role ofcrop managements farm technologies

Tte adaptation of the crop calendar also involves potential changes in the sowing dates. For centuries the proper setting of the sowing date within a particular season has remained as extremely difficult task in practice. In some seasons it is also impossible to keep the recommended sowing dates because of constraints imposed either by weather conditions (e.g. high soil wetness low soil workability) or other factors (e.g. machinery not adapted to wet soil conditions), e experimental data show...

The United States

In the United States, multiple peril yield and revenue insurance products are offered through the Federal Crop Insurance Program (FCIP), a public private partnership between the federal government and various private sector insurance companies. tte program seeks to address both social welfare and economic efficiency objectives. With regard to social welfare, private companies selling federal crop insurance policies may not refuse to sell to any eligible farmer, regardless of past loss history....

OnFarm Applications Against Risks

On-farm applications to cope with agrometeorological risks and uncertainties cannot be defined objectively without detailed description of all the external and internal driving forces, related events, direct and indirect impacts, consequential effects, available technology and resources, and farmer's implementation ability, governmental supporting system and national infrastructure. Nevertheless, it may be practiced through an ordinary farm management system when combined or linked together...

Optimization offarm technologies and soil resources

Soils and prevailing agricultural production systems strongly interact with climate and climate variations, so farm technologies and management options have to be adapted to maintain soil functions for crop production to secure sustainable agricultural production as a basis for the welfare of many countries. Soil types in their current form developed over many centuries are determined among other factors by the climatic conditions. Agricultural practices can strongly impact on soil functions in...

Requirements for Agrometeorological Products

Tte common features of Agrometeorological products include general descriptions of Agrometeorological characteristics of specific regions in terms of agricultural production and resource management. Depending on the requirements and priorities of end-users, the description details or expertise levels of the contents vary to a great extent. In general, due to the shortage of expertise as well as the limited space of bulletins, they contain insufficient levels of quantity or quality of...

Canada

In 2003, Canada revised its agricultural risk management programs, tte Business Risk Management element of the new Agricultural Policy Framework (APF) is composed of two main schemes Production Insurance and Income Stabilization. tte Production Insurance (PI) scheme offers producers a variety of multiple-peril production or production value loss products similar to many of those sold in the United States. One major distinction, however, is that the Canadian program is marketed, delivered, and...

Organic Matter

Tte ultimate goals of sound soil management are to maintain the fertility and structure of the soil. Highly fertile soils produce higher crop yields while maintaining good plant cover and minimizing the erosive effects of rainfall, runoff and wind. One of the ways to achieve and maintain soil fertility is to apply organic matter which improves the cohesiveness of the soil of the soil, increases its water retention capacity and promotes a stable aggregate structure. Organic matter may be added...

Challengesto contingency planning and responses

Because the nature of different hazards is not involved as a primary issue and the organizational challenges have so much in common, we do not differentiate here between the hazards concerned. However, when drought becomes a long-term creeping phenomenon it needs a different treatment, but we deal in this paper with relatively short-term phenomena, ttere is a consensus in the newest literature that emergency relief measures are an important part of preparedness strategies to reduce suffering...

Emergency Response System

Tte establishment of early warning systems and associated preparedness and response systems in agricultural managements has been an important contributor to the progressive prevention and reduction of natural hazards in agricultural production. ttis is true for drought and famine-affected regions, as well as for developed countries where early warning systems, and preparedness, mitigation and risk transfer measures are generally well developed. ttese two parts can be integrated into an...

Demand and supply ofinformation for different income levels in poorareasofChina

Tte very poor farmer (family) pays little attention to technological information (Tan Ying et al. in prep.). According to its importance, the highest information demand for the category of low-income farmer families can be generally ranked as follows (acknowledging areal differences) new varieties, rural policies, utilization of new technologies and applied scientific knowledge. Information demand for anyone item of information is only 30 on average and 40 in some areas. Similarly, for the...

V

10 (most extreme) 10 to 25 (extreme) below 25 (least extreme) Fig. 24.5. e coping capacity of Australian broadacre farms using a combined measures of human, social, natural, physical and financial capital (a, left) and exposure of Australian broad-acres farms to climate risk using a measure of extreme pasture growth conditions (b, right after Nelson et al.2005). drought risk management. Mainstreaming involves developing risk management tools and approaches within the context of overall rural...

Local indigenous knowledge systemsnetworks

Farmers develop and enhance knowledge and technology from their previous experiences, the so-called local or indigenous knowledge. Examples of applications of local knowledge are in selection improvement of seeds, choice of desirable and effective crops varieties, cultural practices such as mulching, no tillage, etc.and many others. Farmer-developed technologies are actual manifestations of their coping mechanisms to various environmental challenges in their farms. For example, in the tribal...

Workshop Summary

Tte presentations and the discussions during the six technical sessions of the workshop could be summarized under the following headings Risk and risk characterization Approaches for dealing with risk Perspectives for farm applications Challenges to coping strategies tte global food and fiber system from the producer to the final consumer -- is subject to a wide range of risks and uncertainties (Menzie 2007). For example, in the South Pacific islands there is little forestry, and traditionally...

Timely issuance

Tte timing of the release of the climate forecast is critical for effective use of the forecast. Several country teams (Lesotho, Mozambique and Swaziland) found that timely issuance remains a key weakness in climate information systems, tte Mozambique team, for example, observed that at present the forecast is provided too late for planting decisions in parts of southern Mozambique (SADC-RRSU 2002). Other scientists have also stated that if the meteorologists are to respond to the needs of...

Middleincome farmers

Also here, specific training of the same extension intermediaries in to the point fields of applied services to such middle-income farmers will be a lasting solution. tte actual needs of these farmers for such services change much more dynamically. ttese needs have therefore to be permanently followed and to be dynamically met. ttis can again partly be done in the training of intermediaries but is even more demanding as to their level and flexibility, tte same applies to the use of improved...

Relative advantages and disadvantages of index insurance

Index insurance can sometimes offer superior risk protection compared to traditional farm-level, multiple- peril crop insurance. Deductibles, co-payments, or other partial payments for loss are commonly used by farm-level, multiple-peril insurance providers to mitigate asymmetric information problems such as adverse selection and moral hazard. Asymmetric information problems are much lower with index insurance because, first, a producer has little more information than the insurer regarding the...

Farming Risks

In both the developing and developed worlds risk exposure and management are important aspects of farming. Variations in the weather, climate, yields, prices, government policies, global markets and other factors can cause wide swings in farm production and, in the case of commercial agriculture, in farm income. Risk management involves choosing among strategies that reduce the social and financial consequences of these variations in production and income. Five general types of risk in the...

Information on the risks for decision making

Most of the Governments in the region have understand that it is necessary to have tte projections on the incidence and the estimation of impacts of natural disasters in order to prioritize preventive actions. tte information on risks for the adoption of preventive policies and preparedness and for the establishment of specific objectives and priorities related to investment. tte information on risks and vulnerabiltiy of natural disasters to develop private insurance and other market tools to...

Vulnerability ofthe Region

Vulnerability in the Region is aggravated because of the location of human activities in some places of great risk, natural resources subject to excessive pressure of poverty, lack of environmental management policies, excessive centralization, little agricultural technology, and lack of education of the population to prevent and face risks (OAS 1993). Main causes of vulnerability in the region are the fast and un-regulated urbanization, rural and urban poverty, deterioration of natural...

Examples of Using Agrometeorological Models 2631

Soil erosion is a natural phenomenon it has occurred over the millennia as part of geological processes and climate change. However, erosion is more severe nowadays soil degradation affects almost 2 billion ha of arable and grazing land (Table 26.2). More than 55 of this damage is caused by water erosion and nearly 33 by wind erosion. Every year soil erosion and other forms of land degradation rob the world of 5-7 m ha of farming land and 2.5 billion tonnes of topsoil are washed away, tte...

Preparedness strategies

Few countries have actually implemented risk-based drought policies and preparedness programs or strategies. However, Australia is an exception to this and some components associated with effectiveness in program development can be provided. Wilhite (2003 2005) identified four key components that have been identified for effective drought risk reduction strategy, ttese are tte availability of timely and reliable information on which to base decisions, Policies and institutional arrangements...

Agrometeorological Advisory Service AAS

Tte major challenge to coping strategies is the development of well differentiated and sufficiently scaled up operational services supporting preparedness strategies (e.g. Stigter et al. 2007). In India, the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting has for example developed an AAS in close collaboration with the India Meteorological Department, the Indian Council for Agricultural Research and the State Agricultural Universities. General Circulation Models (T-80 and T-170) constitute...

Complying with conditions and needs

According to Van Noordwijk et al. (2005), at a meeting of local governments, national and international agencies and NGOs in Meulaboh, Sumatra, there were five main reasons that became apparent for the problems encountered in assisting poor people in building or rebuilding a sustainable livelihood. A first basic problem in Aceh Sumatra appeared to be one of appropriate need assessments, ttere was a call for more critical consideration of local needs. For more than 20 years now, we have been...

Rational croppingpatterns to fitresources available to farmersproducers

Ttese rational cropping patterns could include crop improvement through crop diversification, altering crop mix and use of hybrids, use of cash crops that have secure markets, and practice of different cropping systems (double multiple cropping, intercropping, mixed cropping, sequential cropping, ratoon cropping), and also rotation of crops. Diversification of crops, cultivars and plot locations are most common means by which farmers attempt to stabilize agriculture income (Matlon 1991). Farm...

Key Components

In principle, WAMIS grid portal will stick to WIS architecture and standards with the additional functions of providing computer resources and considering non-meteorological data information sharing (Fig. 12.2). ttus it should provide specific user interfaces to accommodate its specific user demands both from grid and legacy technology using service-oriented architecture, including semantic grid technology in its long-term perspectives. System (Fig. 12.3) - GRID Servers for Simulation models,...

Enso

Because ENSO modulates the climate throughout the Pacific, this leads to much wetter and drier seasons respectively and often floods and drought, tte consequences of these place challenges to agriculture and forestry, demonstrated by examples in this section. tte impact of ENSO climate variability on Australia has been highlighted by events during the early 1990s. In 1990-91 the wet season produced abundant rains, yet it failed almost completely the following year as drought set in across...

Complying with farmers conditions and needs using new weather and climate information approaches and technologies

Das, ZhengDawei, R.E. Rivero Vega, Nguyen Van Viet, N.I. Bakheit, Y.M. Abdullahi . . .174 11.3.1 Information demands of different income levels in poor areas of China 174 . .176 11.3.3 Information channels for different income levels in poor areas of China 178 11.3.4 Demand and supply of information for different income levels in poor areas of China 179 11.3.5 General implications of the findings for different income levels in poor areas of China 179 11.4...

Malawi

Malawi and SADC weather risk transfer to strengthen livelihoods and food security 22.6.2.1 Malawi is dominated by smallholder agriculture, cultivating mostly maize - the staple food. Maize is very weather sensitive and requires a series of inputs, tte economy and livelihoods are affected by rainfall risk (and resulting food insecurity), soil depletion, lack of credit, and limited access to inputs. Malawi suffers serious capacity constraints because it is ravaged by poverty and AIDS. Very few...

Pavout Structure for a Hypothetical Rainfall Contract

Payout structure for a hypothetical rainfall contract traded in exchange markets, ttese exchange-traded contracts are used primarily by firms in the energy sector, although the range of weather phenomena that might potentially be insured using index contracts appears to be limited only by imagination and the ability to parameterize the event. A few examples include excess or deficient precipitation during different times of the year, insufficient or damaging wind, tropical weather...

Remote sensing for spatial information

To study certain impacts of meteorological hazards on agriculture and forestry and improve our understanding of certain preparedness issues, use of remote sensing data is a precious tool in obtaining spatial information on areas of interest where ground measurements are difficult. Moreover, additional information on the land may be essential in establishing its sensitivity to water excess or deficit, water and wind erosion, and the risks of soil degradation. In recent years, many investigations...

Data analysis in research

To prepare agriculture and forestry for adapting to meteorological risks, another challenge is that efforts must be made in research, based on the knowledge of climate data currently available, and orienting it towards the development of the most useful techniques, ttese developments must be accompanied by efforts in agronomic research which take the hypothesis related to climatic extremes and variability into account in research in plant genetic improvement and development of sustainable...

Decision Support Toolsfor Drought Risk Management

Tte mission of the National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC) at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln is to lessen societal vulnerability to drought through the application of appropriate risk management techniques, including development of preparedness plans and improved drought monitoring and early warning systems and the adoption of appropriate drought mitigation measures, tte NDMC was formed in 1995, and it has been working with local, state, and national government in the United States...

Natural Resources Canada Canadian Forest Service CFS

Provide scientific, technical and fire management systems expertise to Expand current international fire danger (FWI) monitoring system to full global coverage (presently monitoring approx. 1 3 global area for current daily conditions). Develop criteria to interpret FWI output in terms of fire danger levels for early warning purposes (e.g., conditions that define Low, Moderate, High, and Extreme fire danger). Develop practical decision-aid tools based on early warning for fire prevention,...

Foreword

Decision making in agricultural production is a complex process in which many risks need to be considered for an informed decision to be made. Farmers face many types of risks related to production, marketing, legal, social and human aspects. In many parts of the world, weather and climate are one of the biggest production risk and uncertainty factors impacting on agricultural systems performance and management. Extreme climatic events such as severe droughts, floods, cyclonic systems or...

Poorfarmers

For the poorest farmers, transfer and adaptation of simple innovative technology developed by others and of simple operational knowledge of all kinds to improve their conditions and income are possible information services for this group. Because of its temporary character, without investment of any kind being involved, the simplest information approaches and technologies will have to do. Because of the importance of social capital, being least developed within these groups, assistance to bring...

List of Contributors

Abdullahi Ahmadu Bello University National Agricultural Extension and Rural Living Services Zaria, Nigeria P.L. Abramides Instituto Agronomico Av- Bar o de Itapura, 1481 13.020-902 .Campinas Sao Paulo, Brazil E-mail pedro apta.sp.gov.br Instituto Agronomico -Ciiagro Av- Bar o de Itapura, 1481 13.020-902 .Campinas Sao Paulo, Brazil E-mail gabriel iac.sp.gov.br Lucka Kajfez Bogataj University of Ljubljana Agronomy Department lamnikarjeva 101, 000 Ljubljana, Slovenia E-mail...

Early warning systems for assessing agrometeorological risks

Use of improved climate and weather information and forecasts along with efficient early warning systems would contribute to the preparedness for extreme weather events. New technologies have brought about an accelerated increase in our knowledge of the climate system. Today the accuracy of forecasts of large-scale weather patterns for seven days in advance is the same as those for two days in advance only 25 years ago. tte accuracy of tropical cyclone track forecasts and the timeliness of...

Capacity of key institutions

Tte respondents indicated that they did not have sufficient capacity to conduct ag-rometeorological analysis that would meet the farmers' demands, ttis meant that the skills and equipment were not adequate. In many African meteorological services, funding has become a really big challenge for operational purposes or indeed for capacity building, tte remuneration of staff is also not very competitive and hence the occurrence of high staff turn-over, tte lack of capacity in institutions has been...

System Development

Tte FDRS were developed by adapting components of the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System, including the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System, to local vegetation, climate, and fire regime conditions. A smoke potential indicator was developed using the Drought Code (DC) of the FWI System. An ignition potential indicator was developed using the Fine Fuel Moisture Code (FFMC) of the FWI System. Historical hot spot analysis, grass moisture, and grass ignition studies were used to...

Agrometeorological Riskand Coping Strategies Perspective from Indian Subcontinent

6.2 Extreme weather events and its impacts on Indian agriculture 84 6.2.1 Cold 6.2.6 Tropical 6.3 Crop 7 Challenges to coping strategies in Agrometeorology The Southwest Pacific 7.2 El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) 99 7.3 Decadal 7.4 Regional 7.5 Challenges to Agriculture and Forestry 105 7.5.2 Tropical 7.6 Discussion and 8 Challenges to agrometeorological risk management - regional perspectives Europe Lucka Kajfez Bogataj, Andreja Susnik 8.2 Seasonal weather forecasts for crop yield...

Conditions of model implementation and application

Agrometeorological models can be set up with different methodologies. From the simplest to most complex tables for manual calculations (Goidanich and Mills tables), electronic plant stations, computer and integrated systems, which combine models, monitoring networks and GIS for the production of information spatially distributed on the territory, tte quality of the information increases in the same direction, but obviously also technological requirements have the same trend. So, particularly in...

Drought as Hazard

Drought differs from other natural hazards in several ways. First, drought is a slow-onset natural hazard often referred to as a creeping phenomenon (Gillette 1950). Because of the creeping nature of drought, its effects accumulate slowly over a substantial period of time, tterefore, the onset and end of drought is difficult to determine, and scientists and policy makers often disagree on the basis (i.e., criteria) for declaring an end to drought. Should drought's end be signaled by a return to...

Structural and nonstructural measures to mitigate risks and uncertainties

Ttere are also opportunities for farmers in Africa to mitigate risks and uncertainties using structural measures such irrigation and water harvesting and non-structural measures such as seasonal climate forecasts as well as medium-range weather forecasts for strategic and tactical management of agriculture. Research indicates that the agrohydrological challenge in semi-arid and dry subhumid tropics is not necessarily related to inadequate cumulative rainfall - at present basically only 1 8 - 1...

Case Study in EWSFire Development

Forest and land fires in Southeast Asia have many social, economic, and environmental impacts. Tropical peatland fires affect global carbon dynamics, and haze from peat fires has serious negative impacts on the regional economy and human health. To mitigate these fire-related problems, forest and land management agencies require an early warning system to assist them in implementing fire prevention and management plans before fire problems begin. From 1999 to 2004 the Canadian Forest Service,...

Addressing Agrometeorological Risk Management during the Workshop

During the International Workshop on Agrometeorological Risk Management Challenges and Opportunities, the issue of agrometeorological risk management was addressed in six technical sessions Weather and Climate Risks, Preparedness and Coping Strategies Overview Challenges to Coping Strategies with Agrometeorological Risks and Uncertainties - Regional Perspectives Agrometeorological Risks and Uncertainties - Perspectives for Farm Applications Coping Strategies with Agrometeorological Risks and...

Global Crop Assessment Methods and Risk Reduction the Case of Brazilian Soybeans

Global soybean production is valued at about S45 billion annually. About one-third of global soybean consumption is derived from imported soybeans. Brazil, the world's second largest soybean producer, accounts for 37 percent of global soybean exports, up from just 8 percent in 1990. Accurate and timely estimation of Brazil's soybean crop each year is critical for decision-making and planning throughout oilseeds, grains, and livestock markets around the world. To highlight this point, Figure 9.9...

Ranching Drought Plan A Drought Planning Tool for Livestock and Forage Producers

According to the National Drought Policy Commission report, Preparing for Drought in the Twenty-First Century (2000), many agricultural producers do not have access to information to develop and implement a drought plan, and even fewer producers are receiving technical assistance to help them develop and implement such plans. In order to address this problem, the NDMC is developing a model drought planning process and web-based educational delivery system for forage and rangeland producers. tte...

Advantages of Index based Insurance products like Weather Insurance

Index based insurance products like weather insurance carry the following advantages A long term sustainable solution A market-based alternative to traditional crop insurance, which overcomes challenges of - High monitoring and administrative cost - Moral hazard and adverse selection Transparency - replaces human subjective assessment with objective weather parameters Scientific way of designing product Simple terms of insurance delivery Speedy claims settlement process Weather insurance has...

Great Weather Disasters 1950 2005

Economic and insured losses (as at March 28, 2006) O NatCalSERVICf. GeoRisk Research, MurnSi Re Fig. 21.2. Development of economic and insured losses from Great Weather Disasters between 1950 and 2005 (Data from Munich Re NatCatSERVICE) events are severe because in many cases they mean a loss of the entire harvest and, as a consequence, the people's sole source of revenue. Figure 21.5 maps the regional distribution of natural disasters in India between 1980 and 2005. It shows that hardly any...