Acknowledgements

Dr. B. Liepert, Columbia University New York, kindly provided the clear-sky time series of the German sites. I am grateful to Prof. A. Ohmura for his support of this study. Dr. Hans Gilgen put enormous efforts into the build-up of the GEBA database. Thanks to Drs. M. Déqué and R. Stratton for making available the output of the Météo-France and UKMO GCMs within the framework of the EU project HIRETYCS. Special thanks to Drs. A. Slingo and S. Cusack, Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, for providing the results from their simulations with the HadAM3 model. The Swiss Scientific Computing Center (CSCS) generously provided the necessary computer resources for the ECHAM simulations. This study is supported by the ETH Schulleitung (Prof. A. Waldvogel) who financed the author's position. I would like to thank Prof. Martin Beniston and Dr. Michel Verstraete for the organization of the very stimulating workshop in Les Diablerets.

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