National Meteorological and Hydrological Services NMHSs

The COF process involves training of the NMHS staff in the different regions of Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, Southeast Asia and the South Pacific. The training focuses on the understanding of the dynamics of climate variability as influenced by major climate forcing such as El NiƱo-Southern Oscillation, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and the Indian and Atlantic Oceans. In the pre-COF era, the NMHS had very little or no knowledge of using the ocean-atmosphere dynamics to forecast climate three months in advance. In other words, these institutions in developing regions did not have knowledge of seasonal to internal climate forecasting. Instead, they typically limited their forecasting efforts to predicting three to five day weather reports. A pre-forum capacity building component of NMHS staff is an integral part of the COF process. This component has improved the institutional capacity of the NMHS staff from doing simple statistical modeling to dynamical modeling, a more sophisticated scientific method that better captures the chaotic nature of the climate system. The collaboration and partnership between the regional and international institutions such as the IRI, the regional WMO specialized centers, the U.S. NCEP/CPC-African Desk, have contributed to the advanced institutional capacity of the NMHSs in developing countries. From the recommendations of the COF process, the USAID-OFDA and WMO provided support for a dynamical modeling laboratory at the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development's (IGAD) Center for Climate Predictions and Application Center (ICPAC), formally known as the Drought Monitoring Center (DMC) Nairobi. This positive synergy has contributed to dynamical modeling capability of the regional NMHSs staff in the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) commonly known as Eastern Africa.

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