Conclusions

Successful seasonal and decadal prediction of crop productivity requires skilful forecasts of climate and its impacts on crops. One approach is to combine climate and crop modeling at a common, large scale in order to exploit crop-climate relationships that are observed at a scale close to that of GCM output. Such a combined climate-crop modeling system provided hindcasts of country-scale crop yields with reasonable forecast skill. Furthermore, the combined modeling system allowed the use of climate re-analysis and probabilistic GCM output in crop productivity applications. Such research is now leading to a fully coupled crop-climate model that captures the two-way interactions between crops and climate. The use of large area crop simulation models both on- and offline with numerical climate models should aid progress towards improved seasonal and decadal forecasts of crop productivity.

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