START, IRI and the David and Lucile Packard Foundation, organizers and sponsors of the Advanced Institute on Climate Variability and Food Security, are acknowledged for the opportunity afforded to Mr Lumsden to participate in the Institute. The research presented emanates from a follow-up project funded by the Institute. Mr Lumsden acknowledges Dr E. Archer, at that stage of the University of Cape Town, who acted as a mentor to him in the project. The University of KwaZulu-Natal is acknowledged for in-kind support. The South African Weather Service is acknowledged as the source of the rainfall forecasts used in this project.

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