Contents

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The Need for Climate Feedbacks Research, 2 Priorities in Climate Feedback Research, 7

1 INTRODUCTION

2 CLOUD, WATER VAPOR, AND LAPSE RATE FEEDBACKS 21 Water Vapor, 21

Lapse Rate Feedback, 24 Cloud Feedbacks, 26

Why Has Progress on Cloud, Water Vapor, and Lapse Rate

Feedbacks Been so Elusive? 32 Developing a Scientific Strategy, 35

3 SEA-ICE FEEDBACKS 41 Overview of Sea-Ice Feedbacks, 43

Developing a Scientific Strategy, 44

4 OCEAN HEAT UPTAKE AND OCEAN CIRCULATION FEEDBACKS

Mixing, Ocean Heat Uptake, and Climate Feedbacks, 50 Thermohaline Circulation Feedbacks, 53

5 TERRESTRIAL HYDROLOGY AND VEGETATION FEEDBACKS Terrestrial Hydrology, 60 Vegetation Feedbacks, 65 Developing a Scientific Strategy, 69

6 ATMOSPHERIC CHEMICAL FEEDBACKS

An Example of the Multiple Dimensions of Climate-Air Chemistry Feedback, 78

Overview of Factors Controlling Climate, Chemistry, and Aerosol

Interactions, 81 Developing a Scientific Strategy, 84

7 BIOGEOCHEMICAL FEEDBACKS AND THE CARBON CYCLE 88 Terrestrial Carbon Feedbacks, 90

Marine Biogeochemical Feedbacks, 97

8 MODES OF VARIABILITY 107

9 RECOMMENDATIONS 110 Key Observations Needed to Monitor and Understand Climate

Change Feedbacks, 111 Evaluating Progress in Understanding Climate Feedbacks, 113

REFERENCES

APPENDIXES

A Climate Change Feedbacks Workshop B Biographical Sketches of Panel Members C Acronyms

137 144 151

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