TS 61 Advances in knowledge

Since the IPCC Third Assessment, the principal advances in knowledge have been as follows.

• Much improved coverage of the impacts of climate change on developing regions, through studies such as the AIACC project (Assessments of Impacts and Adaptations to Climate Change in Multiple Regions and Sectors), although further research is still required, especially in Latin America and Africa [9.ES, 10.ES, 13.ES].

• More studies of adaptation to climate change, with improved understanding of current practice, adaptive capacity, the options, barriers and limits to adaptation [17.ES].

• Much more monitoring of observed effects, and recognition that climate change is having a discernible impact on many natural systems [1.ES, F1.1].

• Some standardisation of the scenarios of future climate change underpinning impact studies, facilitated by centralised data provision through organisations such as the IPCC Data Distribution Centre, thus allowing comparison between sectors and regions [2.2.2].

• Improved understanding of the damages for different levels of global warming, and the link between global warming

Global Distribution of Vulnerability to Climate Change

Combined National Indlcas of Exposure and Sensitivity

Global Distribution of Vulnerability to Climate Change

Combined National Indlcas of Exposure and Sensitivity

Scenario A2 Year 2050 with Climate Sensitivity Equal to 5.5 Degrees C Annual Mean Temperature with Aggregate Impacts Calibration la/climate/ «2006 Wesleyen University and Columbia University

Scenario A2 Year 2050 with Climate Sensitivity Equal to 5.5 Degrees C Annual Mean Temperature with Aggregate Impacts Calibration la/climate/ «2006 Wesleyen University and Columbia University

Global Distribution of Vulnerability to Climate Change

Combined National Indices of Exposure and Sensitivity

Global Distribution of Vulnerability to Climate Change

Combined National Indices of Exposure and Sensitivity

Scenario A2 Year 2050 with Climate Sensitivity Equal to 5.5 Degrees C Annual Mean Temperature with Aggregate Impacts Calibration and Enhanced Adaptive Capacity

http://desin.coluiiibia.edu/data/diiiiate/ «2006 Wealeyan University and Columbia University

Scenario A2 Year 2050 with Climate Sensitivity Equal to 5.5 Degrees C Annual Mean Temperature with Aggregate Impacts Calibration and Enhanced Adaptive Capacity

http://desin.coluiiibia.edu/data/diiiiate/ «2006 Wealeyan University and Columbia University

Global Distribution of Vulnerability to Climate Change Combined National Indices of Exposure and Sensitivity

Global Distribution of Vulnerability to Climate Change Combined National Indices of Exposure and Sensitivity

Scenario A2-550 in Year 2050 with Climate Sensitivity Equal to 5.5 Degrees C Annual Mean Temperature with Aggregate Impacts Calibration

http://desln.coiumbla.edu/data/dlmate/ O2006 Wesleyan University and Columbia University

Scenario A2-550 in Year 2050 with Climate Sensitivity Equal to 5.5 Degrees C Annual Mean Temperature with Aggregate Impacts Calibration

http://desln.coiumbla.edu/data/dlmate/ O2006 Wesleyan University and Columbia University

Global Distribution of Vulnerability to Climate Change

Combined National Indices of Exposure and Sensitivity

Global Distribution of Vulnerability to Climate Change

Combined National Indices of Exposure and Sensitivity

Scenario A2-550 In Year 2050 with Climate Sensitivity Equal to 5.5 Degrees C Annual Mean Temperature with Aggregate impacts Calibration and Enhanced Adaptive Capacity

http://deein.calumbia.edu/data/dimate/ ©2006 Waslayan University and Columbia University

Scenario A2-550 In Year 2050 with Climate Sensitivity Equal to 5.5 Degrees C Annual Mean Temperature with Aggregate impacts Calibration and Enhanced Adaptive Capacity

http://deein.calumbia.edu/data/dimate/ ©2006 Waslayan University and Columbia University

Figure TS.19. Geographical distribution of vulnerability in 2050 with and without mitigation along an SRES A2 emissions scenario with a climate sensitivity of 5.5°C. Panel (a) portrays vulnerability with a static representation of current adaptive capacity. Panel (b) shows vulnerability with enhanced adaptive capacity worldwide. Panel (c) displays the geographical implications of mitigation designed to cap effective atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases at 550 ppm. Panel (d) offers a portrait of the combined complementary effects of mitigation to the same 550 ppmv concentration limit and enhanced adaptive capacity. [F20.6]

and the probability of stabilising CO2 at various levels. As a result, we know more about the link between damages and CO2-stabilisation scenarios [20.7.2, T20.8, T20.9].

However, there has been little advance on:

• impacts under different assumptions about how the world will evolve in future - societies, governance, technology and economic development;

• the costs of climate change, both of the impacts and of response (adaptation and mitigation);

• proximity to thresholds and tipping points;

• impacts resulting from interactions between climate change and other human-induced environmental changes.

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