Coordinating Lead Authors:
Martin Parry (UK), Osvaldo Canziani (Argentina), Jean Palutikof (UK)
Neil Adger (UK), Pramod Aggarwal (India), Shardul Agrawala (OECD/France), Joseph Alcamo (Germany), Abdelkader Allali (Morocco),
Oleg Anisimov (Russia), Nigel Arnell (UK), Michel Boko (Benin), Timothy Carter (Finland), Gino Casassa (Chile),
Ulisses Confalonieri (Brazil), Rex Victor Cruz (Philippines), Edmundo de Alba Alcaraz (Mexico), William Easterling (USA),
Christopher Field (USA), Andreas Fischlin (Switzerland), Blair Fitzharris (New Zealand), Carlos Gay García (Mexico),
Hideo Harasawa (Japan), Kevin Hennessy (Australia), Saleemul Huq (UK), Roger Jones (Australia), Lucka Kajfez Bogataj (Slovenia),
David Karoly (USA), Richard Klein (The Netherlands), Zbigniew Kundzewicz (Poland), Murari Lal (India), Rodel Lasco (Philippines),
Geoff Love (Australia), Xianfu Lu (China), Graciela Magrín (Argentina), Luis José Mata (Venezuela),
Bettina Menne (WHO Regional Office for Europe/Germany), Guy Midgley (South Africa), Nobuo Mimura (Japan),
Monirul Qader Mirza (Bangladesh/Canada), José Moreno (Spain), Linda Mortsch (Canada), Isabelle Niang-Diop (Senegal),
Robert Nicholls (UK), Béla Nováky (Hungary), Leonard Nurse (Barbados), Anthony Nyong (Nigeria), Michael Oppenheimer (USA),
Anand Patwardhan (India), Patricia Romero Lankao (Mexico), Cynthia Rosenzweig (USA), Stephen Schneider (USA),
Serguei Semenov (Russia), Joel Smith (USA), John Stone (Canada), Jean-Pascal van Ypersele (Belgium), David Vaughan (UK),
Coleen Vogel (South Africa), Thomas Wilbanks (USA), Poh Poh Wong (Singapore), Shaohong Wu (China), Gary Yohe (USA)
Debbie Hemming (UK), Pete Falloon (UK)
Wolfgang Cramer (Germany), Daniel Murdiyarso (Indonesia)
This Technical Summary should be cited as:
Parry, M.L., O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof and Co-authors 2007: Technical Summary. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 23-78.
Table of Contents
Summary of main findings 25
TS.1 Scope, approach and method of the Working Group II assessment 26
TS.2 Current knowledge about observed impacts on natural and managed systems 26
Box TS.1 Sourcing in the Technical Summary 27
Box TS.2 Communication of uncertainty in the
Working Group II Fourth Assessment 27
Box TS.3 Definition of key terms 27
Box TS.4 Linking the causes of climate change to observed effects on physical and biological systems 29
TS.3 Methods and scenarios 31
TS.3.1 Developments in methods available to researchers on climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability 31
TS.3.2 Characterising the future in the Working
Group IIIPCC Fourth Assessment 32
TS.4 Current knowledge about future impacts 35
TS.4.1 Sectoral impacts, adaptation and vulnerability 35
Box TS.5 The main projected impacts for systems and sectors 44
TS.4.2 Regional impacts, adaptation and vulnerability 48
BoxTS.6 The main projected impacts for regions 59
TS.4.3 Magnitudes of impact for varying amounts of climate change 64
TS.4.4 The impact of altered extremes 64
TS.4.5 Especially affected systems, sectors and regions 64
TS.4.6 Events with large impacts 64
TS.4.7 Costing the impacts of climate change 64
TS.5 Current knowledge about responding to climate change 65
TS.5.1 Adaptation 65
TS.5.2 Interrelationships between adaptation and mitigation 70
Box TS.7 Adaptive capacity to multiple stressors in
TS.5.3 Key vulnerabilities 73
TS.5.4 Perspectives on climate change and sustainability 75
TS.6 Advances in knowledge and future research needs 76
TS.6.1 Advances in knowledge 76
TS.6.2 Future research needs 77
• Observational evidence from all continents and most oceans shows that many natural systems are being affected by regional climate changes, particularly temperature increases.
• A global assessment of data since 1970 has shown it is likely that anthropogenic warming has had a discernible influence on many physical and biological systems.
• Other effects of regional climate changes on natural and human environments are emerging, although many are difficult to discern due to adaptation and non-climatic drivers.
• More specific information is now available across a wide range of systems and sectors concerning the nature of future impacts, including for some fields not covered in previous assessments.
• More specific information is now available across the regions of the world concerning the nature of future impacts, including for some places not covered in previous assessments.
• Magnitudes of impact can now be estimated more systematically for a range of possible increases in global average temperature.
• Impacts due to altered frequencies and intensities of extreme weather, climate and sea-level events are very likely to change.
• Some large-scale climate events have the potential to cause very large impacts, especially after the 21st century.
• Impacts of climate change will vary regionally but, aggregated and discounted to the present, they are very likely to impose net annual costs which will increase over time as global temperatures increase.
• Some adaptation is occurring now, to observed and projected future climate change, but on a limited basis.
• Adaptation will be necessary to address impacts resulting from the warming which is already unavoidable due to past emissions.
• A wide array of adaptation options is available, but more extensive adaptation than is currently occurring is required to reduce vulnerability to future climate change. There are barriers, limits and costs, but these are not fully understood.
• Vulnerability to climate change can be exacerbated by the presence of other stresses.
• Future vulnerability depends not only on climate change but also on development pathway.
• Sustainable development can reduce vulnerability to climate change, and climate change could impede nations' abilities to achieve sustainable development pathways.
• Many impacts can be avoided, reduced or delayed by mitigation.
• A portfolio of adaptation and mitigation measures can diminish the risks associated with climate change.
Was this article helpful?