Technical Summary

Coordinating Lead Authors:

Martin Parry (UK), Osvaldo Canziani (Argentina), Jean Palutikof (UK)

Lead Authors:

Neil Adger (UK), Pramod Aggarwal (India), Shardul Agrawala (OECD/France), Joseph Alcamo (Germany), Abdelkader Allali (Morocco),

Oleg Anisimov (Russia), Nigel Arnell (UK), Michel Boko (Benin), Timothy Carter (Finland), Gino Casassa (Chile),

Ulisses Confalonieri (Brazil), Rex Victor Cruz (Philippines), Edmundo de Alba Alcaraz (Mexico), William Easterling (USA),

Christopher Field (USA), Andreas Fischlin (Switzerland), Blair Fitzharris (New Zealand), Carlos Gay García (Mexico),

Hideo Harasawa (Japan), Kevin Hennessy (Australia), Saleemul Huq (UK), Roger Jones (Australia), Lucka Kajfez Bogataj (Slovenia),

David Karoly (USA), Richard Klein (The Netherlands), Zbigniew Kundzewicz (Poland), Murari Lal (India), Rodel Lasco (Philippines),

Geoff Love (Australia), Xianfu Lu (China), Graciela Magrín (Argentina), Luis José Mata (Venezuela),

Bettina Menne (WHO Regional Office for Europe/Germany), Guy Midgley (South Africa), Nobuo Mimura (Japan),

Monirul Qader Mirza (Bangladesh/Canada), José Moreno (Spain), Linda Mortsch (Canada), Isabelle Niang-Diop (Senegal),

Robert Nicholls (UK), Béla Nováky (Hungary), Leonard Nurse (Barbados), Anthony Nyong (Nigeria), Michael Oppenheimer (USA),

Anand Patwardhan (India), Patricia Romero Lankao (Mexico), Cynthia Rosenzweig (USA), Stephen Schneider (USA),

Serguei Semenov (Russia), Joel Smith (USA), John Stone (Canada), Jean-Pascal van Ypersele (Belgium), David Vaughan (UK),

Coleen Vogel (South Africa), Thomas Wilbanks (USA), Poh Poh Wong (Singapore), Shaohong Wu (China), Gary Yohe (USA)

Contributing Authors:

Debbie Hemming (UK), Pete Falloon (UK)

Review Editors:

Wolfgang Cramer (Germany), Daniel Murdiyarso (Indonesia)

This Technical Summary should be cited as:

Parry, M.L., O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof and Co-authors 2007: Technical Summary. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 23-78.

Table of Contents

Summary of main findings 25

TS.1 Scope, approach and method of the Working Group II assessment 26

TS.2 Current knowledge about observed impacts on natural and managed systems 26

Box TS.1 Sourcing in the Technical Summary 27

Box TS.2 Communication of uncertainty in the

Working Group II Fourth Assessment 27

Box TS.3 Definition of key terms 27

Box TS.4 Linking the causes of climate change to observed effects on physical and biological systems 29

TS.3 Methods and scenarios 31

TS.3.1 Developments in methods available to researchers on climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability 31

TS.3.2 Characterising the future in the Working

Group IIIPCC Fourth Assessment 32

TS.4 Current knowledge about future impacts 35

TS.4.1 Sectoral impacts, adaptation and vulnerability 35

Box TS.5 The main projected impacts for systems and sectors 44

TS.4.2 Regional impacts, adaptation and vulnerability 48

BoxTS.6 The main projected impacts for regions 59

TS.4.3 Magnitudes of impact for varying amounts of climate change 64

TS.4.4 The impact of altered extremes 64

TS.4.5 Especially affected systems, sectors and regions 64

TS.4.6 Events with large impacts 64

TS.4.7 Costing the impacts of climate change 64

TS.5 Current knowledge about responding to climate change 65

TS.5.1 Adaptation 65

TS.5.2 Interrelationships between adaptation and mitigation 70

Box TS.7 Adaptive capacity to multiple stressors in

India 71

TS.5.3 Key vulnerabilities 73

TS.5.4 Perspectives on climate change and sustainability 75

TS.6 Advances in knowledge and future research needs 76

TS.6.1 Advances in knowledge 76

TS.6.2 Future research needs 77

Summary of main findings

• Observational evidence from all continents and most oceans shows that many natural systems are being affected by regional climate changes, particularly temperature increases.

• A global assessment of data since 1970 has shown it is likely that anthropogenic warming has had a discernible influence on many physical and biological systems.

• Other effects of regional climate changes on natural and human environments are emerging, although many are difficult to discern due to adaptation and non-climatic drivers.

• More specific information is now available across a wide range of systems and sectors concerning the nature of future impacts, including for some fields not covered in previous assessments.

• More specific information is now available across the regions of the world concerning the nature of future impacts, including for some places not covered in previous assessments.

• Magnitudes of impact can now be estimated more systematically for a range of possible increases in global average temperature.

• Impacts due to altered frequencies and intensities of extreme weather, climate and sea-level events are very likely to change.

• Some large-scale climate events have the potential to cause very large impacts, especially after the 21st century.

• Impacts of climate change will vary regionally but, aggregated and discounted to the present, they are very likely to impose net annual costs which will increase over time as global temperatures increase.

• Some adaptation is occurring now, to observed and projected future climate change, but on a limited basis.

• Adaptation will be necessary to address impacts resulting from the warming which is already unavoidable due to past emissions.

• A wide array of adaptation options is available, but more extensive adaptation than is currently occurring is required to reduce vulnerability to future climate change. There are barriers, limits and costs, but these are not fully understood.

• Vulnerability to climate change can be exacerbated by the presence of other stresses.

• Future vulnerability depends not only on climate change but also on development pathway.

• Sustainable development can reduce vulnerability to climate change, and climate change could impede nations' abilities to achieve sustainable development pathways.

• Many impacts can be avoided, reduced or delayed by mitigation.

• A portfolio of adaptation and mitigation measures can diminish the risks associated with climate change.

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