Table of Contents

Executive summary 81

1.1 Introduction 82

1.1.1 Scope and goals of the chapter 82

1.1.2 Summary of observed changes in the TAR 83

1.2 Methods of detection and attribution of observed changes 83

1.2.1 Climate and non-climate drivers of change 83

1.2.2 Methods and confidence 85

1.3 Observed changes in natural and managed systems related to regional climate changes...85

1.3.1 Cryosphere 85

Box 1.1 Retreat of Chacaltaya and its effects: case study of a small disappearing glacier in Bolivia 87

1.3.2 Hydrology and water resources 90

1.3.3 Coastal processes and zones 92

1.3.4 Marine and freshwater biological systems 94

1.3.5 Terrestrial biological systems 98

1.3.6 Agriculture and forestry 104

Box 1.2 Wine and recent warming 105

1.3.7 Human health 107

1.3.8 Disasters and hazards 109

1.3.9 Socio-economic indicators 111

1.4 Larger-scale aggregation and attribution to anthropogenic climate change 112

1.4.1 Larger-scale aggregation 112

1.4.2 Joint attribution 112

Box 1.3 Phenological responses to climate in Europe:

the COST725 project 113

1.5 Learning from observed responses: vulnerability, adaptation and research needs 117

References 117

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