Table of Contents

Executive summary 275

5.1 Introduction: importance, scope and uncertainty, TAR summary and methods ...276

5.1.1 Importance of agriculture, forestry and fisheries ...276

5.1.2 Scope of the chapter and treatment of uncertainty 276

5.1.3 Important findings of the

Third Assessment Report (TAR) 276

5.1.4 Methods 277

5.2 Current sensitivity, vulnerability, and adaptive capacity to climate 277

5.2.1 Current sensitivity 277

5.2.2 Sensitivity to multiple stresses 277

Box 5.1 European heatwave impact on the agricultural sector 277

Box 5.2 Air pollutants and ultraviolet-B

radiation (UV-B) 278

5.2.3 Current vulnerability and adaptive capacity in perspective 278

Box 5.3 Climate change and the fisheries of the lower Mekong - an example of multiple stresses on a megadelta fisheries system due to human activity...279

5.3 Assumptions about future trends in climate, food, forestry and fisheries 280

5.3.1 Climate 280

5.3.2 Balancing future global supply and demand in agriculture, forestry and fisheries 280

5.4 Key future impacts, vulnerabilities and their spatial distribution 282

5.4.1 Primary effects and interactions 282

5.4.2 Food-crop farming including tree crops 283

5.4.3 Pastures and livestock production 283

5.4.4 Industrial crops and biofuels 288

5.4.5 Key future impacts on forestry 288

5.4.6 Capture fisheries and aquaculture:

marine and inland waters 291

Box 5.4 Impact of coral mortality on reef fisheries 292

5.4.7 Rural livelihoods: subsistence and smallholder agriculture 293

Box 5.5 Pastoralist coping strategies in northern Kenya and southern Ethiopia 293

5.5 Adaptations: options and capacities 294

5.5.1 Autonomous adaptations 294

5.5.2 Planned adaptations 295

Box 5.6 Will biotechnology assist agricultural and forest adaptation? 296

5.6 Costs and other socio-economic aspects, including food supply and security 296

5.6.1 Global costs to agriculture 296

5.6.2 Global costs to forestry 297

5.6.3 Changes in trade 297

5.6.4 Regional costs and associated socio-economic impacts 297

5.6.5 Food security and vulnerability 297

5.7 Implications for sustainable development 299

5.8 Key conclusions and their uncertainties, confidence levels and research gaps 299

5.8.1 Findings and key conclusions 299

5.8.2 Research gaps and priorities 301

References 303

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