Table of Contents

Executive summary 543

12.1 Introduction 544

12.1.1 Summary of knowledge from the Third

Assessment Report 544

12.2 Current sensitivity/vulnerability 545

12.2.1 Climate factors and trends 545

12.2.2 Non-climate factors and trends 545

12.2.3 Current adaptation and adaptive capacity 547

12.3 Assumptions about future trends 547

12.3.1 Climate projections 547

12.3.2 Non-climate trends 548

12.4 Key future impacts and vulnerabilities 549

12.4.1 Water resources 549

12.4.2 Coastal and marine systems 550

12.4.3 Mountains and sub-Arctic regions 551

12.4.4 Forests, shrublands and grasslands 552

12.4.5 Wetlands and aquatic ecosystems 553

12.4.6 Biodiversity 553

12.4.7 Agriculture and fisheries 554

12.4.8 Energy and transport 556

12.4.9 Tourism and recreation 556

12.4.10 Property insurance 557

12.4.11 Human health 557

12.5 Adaptation: practices, options and constraints 559

12.5.1 Water resources 559

12.5.2 Coastal and marine systems 559

12.5.3 Mountains and sub-Arctic regions 559

12.5.4 Forests, shrublands and grasslands 559

12.5.5 Wetlands and aquatic ecosystems 560

12.5.6 Biodiversity 560

12.5.7 Agriculture and fisheries 560

12.5.8 Energy and transport 561

12.5.9 Tourism and recreation 561

12.5.10 Property insurance 561

12.5.11 Human health 562

12.6 Case studies 562

12.6.1 Heatwave of 2003 562

12.6.2 Thermohaline circulation changes in the North Atlantic: possible impacts for Europe 563

12.7 Conclusions: implications for sustainable development 563

12.8 Key uncertainties and research priorities...564 References 566

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