Table of Contents

Executive summary 435

9.1 Introduction 435

9.1.1 Summary of knowledge assessed in the Third Assessment Report 435

9.1.2 New advances and approaches used in the

Fourth Assessment Report 436

9.2 Current sensitivity/vulnerability 436

9.2.1 Current sensitivity to climate and weather 436

Box 9.1 Environmental changes on Mt. Kilimanjaro 438

9.2.2 Current sensitivity and vulnerability to other stresses 440

9.3 Assumptions about future trends 443

9.3.1 Climate-change scenarios 443

9.3.2 Socio-economic scenarios 444

9.4 Expected key future impacts and vulnerabilities, and their spatial variation...444

9.4.1 Water 444

Box 9.2. Climate, water availability and agriculture in Egypt 445

9.4.2 Energy 446

9.4.3 Health 446

9.4.4 Agriculture 447

9.4.5 Ecosystems 449

9.4.6 Coastal zones 450

9.4.7 Tourism 450

9.4.8 Settlements, industry and infrastructure 451

9.5 Adaptation constraints and opportunities ..452

9.5.1 Adaptation practices 452

9.5.2 Adaptation costs, constraints and opportunities 453

9.6 Case studies 454

9.6.1 Food insecurity: the role of climate variability, change and other stressors 454

9.6.2 Indigenous knowledge systems 456

9.7 Conclusions: links between climate change and sustainable development 457

9.8 Key uncertainties, confidence levels, unknowns, research gaps and priorities 457

9.8.1 Uncertainties, confidence levels and unknowns 457

9.8.2 Research gaps and priorities 458

References 460

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