Table of Contents

Executive summary 655

15.1 Introduction 655

15.1.1 Summary of knowledge assessed in the TAR 655

15.2 Current sensitivity/vulnerability 656

15.2.1 Climate, environment and socio-economic state 656

15.2.2 Vulnerability and adaptive capacity 658

15.3 Assumptions about future trends 661

15.3.1 Key regional impacts with importance to the global system 661

15.3.2 Projected atmospheric changes 662

15.3.3 Projected changes in the oceans 662

15.3.4 Projected changes on land 662

15.4 Key future impacts and vulnerabilities 663

15.4.1 Freshwater systems and their management 663

15.4.2 Terrestrial ecosystems and their services 666

15.4.3 Marine ecosystems and their services in the Arctic 668

15.4.4 Marine ecosystems and their services in the Antarctic 669

Box 15.1. Atlantic cod in the 20th century:

historical examples 670

15.4.5 Human health and well-being 671

15.4.6 Coastal zone and small islands 672

15.5 Adaptation: practices, options and constraints 672

15.6 Case studies 673

15.6.1 Case study: traditional knowledge for adaptation 673

15.6.2 Case study: Arctic megadeltas 674

15.6.3 Case study: Antarctic Peninsula - rapid warming in a pristine environment 674

15.7 Conclusions: implications for sustainable development 675

15.7.1 Economic activity, infrastructure and sustainability in the Arctic 675

15.7.2 Economic activity and sustainability in the Antarctic 676

15.8 Key uncertainties and research priorities...676 References 677

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