Table of Contents

Executive summary 509

11.1 Introduction 510

11.1.1 Summary of knowledge from the Third Assessment Report (TAR) 510

11.1.2 New findings of this Fourth Assessment

Report (AR4) 510

11.2 Current sensitivity/vulnerability 510

11.2.1 Climate variability and 20th-century trends 510

11.2.2 Human systems: sensitivity/vulnerability to climate and weather 511

11.2.3 Natural systems: sensitivity/vulnerability to climate and weather 511

11.2.4 Sensitivity/vulnerability to other stresses 511

Box 11.1 Examples of extreme weather events in

Australia and New Zealand 511

11.2.5 Current adaptation 513

11.3 Assumptions about future trends 514

11.3.1 Climate 514

11.3.2 Population, energy and agriculture 516

11.4 Key future impacts and vulnerabilities 516

11.4.1 Freshwater resources 516

11.4.2 Natural ecosystems 517

11.4.3 Agriculture 518

11.4.4 Forestry 520

11.4.5 Coasts 520

11.4.6 Fisheries 521

11.4.7 Settlements, industry and societies 521

11.4.8 Indigenous people 522

11.4.9 Tourism and recreation 523

11.4.10 Energy 523

11.4.11 Human health 524

11.4.12 Synthesis 524

11.5 Adaptation constraints and opportunities...524

11.6 Case studies 526

Box 11.2. Adaptation of water supplies in cities 526

Box 11.3. Climate change and the Great Barrier Reef 527

Box 11.4. Climate change adaptation in coastal areas 528

11.7 Conclusions: implications for sustainable development 528

11.8 Key uncertainties and research priorities ...529

11.8.1 Assessing impacts of climate change and vulnerability for critical systems 529

11.8.2 Fostering the process of adaptation to climate change 530

11.8.3 Assessing risks and opportunities of climate change for different scenarios 531

11.8.4 Analysing global trade, immigration and security for climate change outcomes 531

References 531

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