Table of Contents

Executive summary 175

3.1 Introduction 175

3.2 Current sensitivity/vulnerability 176

3.3 Assumptions about future trends 180

3.3.1 Climatic drivers 180

3.3.2 Non-climatic drivers 181

3.4 Key future impacts and vulnerabilities 182

3.4.1 Surface waters 182

3.4.2 Groundwater 185

3.4.3 Floods and droughts 186

3.4.4 Water quality 188

3.4.5 Erosion and sediment transport 189

3.5 Costs and other socio-economic aspects 190

3.5.1 How will climate change affect the balance of water demand and water availability? 191

Box 3.1 Costs of climate change in Okanagan, Canada ...195

3.5.2 How will climate change affect flood damages? 196

3.6 Adaptation: practices, options and constraints 196

3.6.1 The context for adaptation 196

3.6.2 Adaptation options in principle 197

Box 3.2 Lessons from the 'Dialogue on Water and

Climate' 197

3.6.3 Adaptation options in practice 198

3.6.4 Limits to adaptation and adaptive capacity 199

3.6.5 Uncertainty and risk: decision-making under uncertainty 199

3.7 Conclusions: implications for sustainable development 200

3.8 Key uncertainties and research priorities 201

References 202

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