Small Islands

2 to 5% decrease wheat and maize in India4

0.1 to 1.2 billion6

5 to 12% decrease Crop yield rice in China 4 potential

Up to 2 million 5 0.2 to 1.0 billion6

Additional people with Increased

Additional people with Increased

Annual bleaching of Great Barrier Reef7 3,000 to 5,000 more heat related deaths per year 8

Murray-Darling River flow 9

Additional people at risk o flooding each year

Decreasing water security in south and east Australia and parts of east New Zealand

+5to +15% in Northern Europe11 ^ +10to+20%11

0 to -25% in Southern Europe11

12 12

-5to-35%11

Wheat yield potential

Potential extinction of about 25% Central Brazilian savanna tree

species13

Potential extinction of 45% Amazonian tree

Many tropical glaciers disappear1

Many mid-latitude glaciers disappear1

10 to 80 million15

80 to 180 million15 Additional people with Increased water stress

5 to 20% increase crop yield potential

Decreased space heating and increased space cooling18

About 70% Increase ozone days19

wm e In hazardous

70 to 120% increase forest area burned in Canada17

Increase In depth of seasonal thaw of 10 to 15%" Arctic permafrost

20 to 35% reduction of Arctic permafrost area 20

3 to 8 times increase in heat wave days in some cities19

10 to 50% Arctic tundra replaced by forest 21

15 to 25% polar desert replaced by tundra 21

20 to 35% decrease annual average Arctic sea Ice area22

Increasing coastal inundation and damage to infrastructure due to sea-level rise1

Alien species colonise mid-and high latitude islands 24

Agricultural losses up to 5% GDP In high terrain Islands, up to 20% GDP in low terrain islands 25

Global mean annual temperature change relative to 1980-1999 (°C) Table 20.9. Examples of regional impacts. See caption for Table 20.8.

Table 20.8. (cont.) Edges of boxes and placing of text indicate the range of temperature change to which the impacts relate. Arrows between boxes indicate increasing levels of impacts between estimations. Other arrows indicate trends in impacts. All entries for water stress and flooding represent the additional impacts of climate change relative to the conditions projected across the range of SRES scenarios A1FI, A2, B1 and B2. Adaptation to climate change is not included in these estimations. For extinctions, 'major' means ~40 to ~70% of assessed species.

The table also shows global temperature changes for selected time periods, relative to 1980-1999, projected for SRES and stabilisation scenarios. To express the temperature change relative to 1850-1899, add 0.5°C. More detail is provided in Chapter2 [Box 2.8]. Estimates are for the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, (the time periods used by the IPCC Data Distribution Centre and therefore in many impact studies) and for the 2090s. SRES-based projections are shown using two different approaches. Middle panel: projections from the WGIAR4 SPM based on multiple sources. Best estimates are based on AOGCMs (coloured dots). Uncertainty ranges, available only for the 2090s, are based on models, observational constraints and expert judgement. Lower panel: best estimates and uncertainty ranges based on a simple climate model (SCM), also from WGI AR4 (Chapter 10). Upper panel: best estimates and uncertainty ranges for four CO2-stabilisation scenarios using an SCM. Results are from the TAR because comparable projections for the 21st century are not available in theAR4. However, estimates of equilibrium warming are reported in the WGI AR4 forCO2-equivalent stabilisationa. Note that equilibrium temperatures would not be reached until decades or centuries after greenhouse gas stabilisation.

Table 20.8. Sources: 1, 3.4.1; 2,3.4.1, 3.4.3; 3,3.5.1; 4,4.4.11; 5, 4.4.9, 4.4.11, 6.2.5,6.4.1; 6,4.4.9,4.4.11, 6.4.1; 7,4.2.2,4.4.1,4.4.4 to 4.4.6,4.4.10; 8,4.4.1, 4.4.11; 9,5.4.2; 10,6.3.2,6.4.1, 6.4.2; 11,6.4.1; 12,6.4.2; 13,8.4,8.7; 14,8.2,8.4,8.7; 15,8.2, 8.4,8.7; 16,8.6.1; 17,19.3.1; 18,19.3.1, 19.3.5; 19,19.3.5 Table 20.9. Sources: 1,9.4.5; 2, 9.4.4; 3,9.4.1; 4,10.4.1; 5,6.4.2; 6,10.4.2; 7,11.6; 8,11.4.12; 9,11.4.1,11.4.12; 10,11.4.1,11.4.12; 11,12.4.1; 12,12.4.7; 13,13.4.1; 14,13.2.4; 15,13.4.3; 16,14.4.4; 17,5.4.5,14.4.4; 18,14.4.8; 19,14.4.5; 20,15.3.4,21,15.4.2; 22,15.3.3; 23,16.4.7; 24,16.4.4; 25,16.4.3

a Best estimate and likely range of equilibrium warming for seven levels of CO2-equivalent stabilisation from WGI AR4 are: 350 ppm, 1.0°C [0.6-1.4]; 450 ppm, 2.1 °C [1.4-3.1]; 550 ppm, 2.9°C [1.9-4.4]; 650 ppm, 3.6°C [2.4-5.5]; 750 ppm, 4.3°C [2.8-6.4]; 1,000 ppm, 5.5°C [3.7-8.3] and 1,200 ppm, 6.3°C [4.2-9.4].

Global Distribution of Vulnerability to Climate Change

Combined National Indices of Exposure and Sensitivity

3 Littl

2 Little vulnerability H nodata

Scenario A2 Year 2050 with Climate Sensitivity Equal to 5.5 Degrees C Annual Mean Temperature with Aggregate impacts Calibration

http://ciesin.columbia.edu/data/climate/

Global Distribution of Vulnerability to Climate Change

Combined National Indices of Exposure and Sensitivity

Scenario A2 Year 2050 with Climate Sensitivity Equal to 5.5 Degrees C Annual Mean Temperature with Aggregate Impacts Calibration and Enhanced Adaptive Capacity

©2006 Wesleyan University and Columbia University

http://ciesin.columbia.edu/data/climate/

©2006 Wesleyan University and Columbia University

Global Distribution of Vulnerability to Climate Change

Combined National Indices of Exposure and Sensitivity

Global Distribution of Vulnerability to Climate Change

Combined National Indices of Exposure and Sensitivity

7 Moderate

0 0

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