O

Observed changes and responses, 26-31,79-131,781 adaptation, regional, 111-112 agriculture and forestry, 81-82, 104-107 attribution to temperature, 81, 112-116 biological systems, 83, 94-107,115-116

climate and non-climate drivers, 83-85 coastal processes and zones, 81, 92-94,115 confidence, 85 cryosphere, 81,85-90,115 disasters and hazards, 109-111

geographic locations and associated temperatures, 115-116 geographical balance in data, lack of/need for, 82, 117 human health, 82, 107-109 hydrology and water resources, 81, 90-92 introduction, 82-83

larger-scale aggregation and joint attribution, 82, 83, 112-116 learning from, 117

linking climate-change causes with, 29

locations of significant changes in, 30

marine and freshwater biological systems, 81,94-98,

115-116 meta-analysis studies, 112-116 methods of detection and attribution, 83-85 no change, evidence of, 85 physical systems, 83, 85-92,115-116 socio-economic indicators, 82, 111-112 terrestrial biological systems, 81,98-104,115-116 vulnerability, adaptation and research needs, 117 See also specific systems and regions Occupational health, 405

Ocean acidification*, 28-31,38, 81,234,236, 320,793 in Australia/New Zealand region, 517, 527 coral bleaching and, 330 coral calcification and, 38, 94,235 in polar regions, 655, 658 projections, 37,45, 235 Oceans, 213,234-237 carbon buffering, 38 carbon stocks, 38, 213,214

circulation, 662 (See also Thermohaline circulation)

food webs, 658, 669-670

freshening of, 88, 662

mixed layer, 91

observed changes, 81, 88

primary production decline, 94

projected changes, 662

warming, 656

water chemistry, 658

See also Marine ecosystems; Ocean acidification; Southern Ocean

OECD. See Organisation for Economic Co-operation and

Development Okanagan, Canada, 195 Ombrotrophic bog*, 230 Oncomelania, 487 Opportunity costs*, 763, 826 Optimality, 749

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and

Development (OECD), 755, 768 Overshoot scenarios, 801-802,804

See also Mitigation Oxygen deficiency in fish-spawning habitats, 665 in oceans and coastal areas, 235 Oysters, 292,400 Ozone*, 401-402,413

effects on crop yields, 276,278 future scenarios, 153, 372

ground-level, health impacts of, 393,401-402,408-411,

412,588,619,632 interaction in carbon dioxide effects, 40, 276, 278 stratospheric, impacts of loss of, 600-601 tropospheric, warming associated with, 480

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), 95,101,292, 319

See also Modes of climate variability PAGE2002 model, 821-823

See also Integrated assessment models (IAMs) Pakistan human population, 488 migration, human, 488 water resources, 477 See also Asia Palm products industry, 333, 450 Paludification*, 229,231 Participatory processes, 813, 832-834 Particulates*, 394, 402, 588 Pastoralists, 39,279,281-282,657

coping/adaptation strategies, 293,457 Patagonian toothfish (Dissostichus eleginoides), 669,676 Peat/peatlands*, 234,239,477-478,543,558,792,795 Pelagic communities*, 94,95,234,236 in polar regions, 658, 659 range shifts in, 659

See also Fish; Fisheries; Pelagic fisheries Pelagic fisheries in Australia/New Zealand region, 521 observed changes, 97

See also Fish; Fisheries; Pelagic communities Penguins, 660 Perkinsus marinus, 292

Permafrost*, 49,214,221,486-487,655,660-661,663 adaptation to melting of, 719, 722 in Asia, 49,472,477,486-487 carbon stocks, 214, 221, 231 in Europe, 51, 52,543, 551, 558,559, 565 infrastructure and, 632, 635, 661, 675 interactions/feedbacks, 249, 661 lake formation and drainage, 90, 91 methane release from, 38, 88, 213, 231, 662, 793 in North Americas, 632, 635 observed changes, 28, 81, 83, 88,177, 655 projected changes, 40,49,486-487, 663 temperatures, 477

thawing, 221, 237, 551,558, 655, 656,663, 675 vulnerability, 660-661 See also Polar regions Pesticides, 175,182,188 pH, oceanic projected, 37,45,235

See also Ocean acidification Phenology*, 31,97,99-100,101 agricultural impacts, 31,81,105 in Asia, 100,478

in Australia/New Zealand region, 100 COST725 project, 112,113

in Europe, 51-52, 99-100,101,113,546, 551, 552,553, 558

insect pest activity and, 283 in North America, 99-100, 283, 621,622, 631 observed changes, 28, 81, 83, 96, 98, 99-101, 113-114 pelagic communities, 95, 97 See also Growing season Phosphorus, 816

Photochemical smog*, 487,557-558 Photosynthesis*, 104, 329

See also Growing season Physical systems, 26,28

linking climate-change with observed effects, 29 locations of significant changes in, 30 See also Detection and attribution; Joint attribution; Observed changes and responses Phytoplankton*, 56,234,236,414,793 observed changes, 91, 96 in polar regions, 56, 659 productivity in lakes, 91 sea surface temperature and, 487 See also Algal blooms; Zooplankton Pied flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca), 101,103,696 Pika (Ochotona princeps), 103

Pine and spruce beetles, 107,228,283,623,624,631,667

See also Disturbance regimes; Insect pests; Insects Pinnipeds, 236 Pitcher plant mosquito, 104 Plankton*, 213,234,295,517 communities, 234, 236 ocean acidification and, 38 poleward shift of, 28

See also Algal blooms; Phytoplankton; Zooplankton Planned adaptation, 65,719,731-733,781

in Australia/New Zealand region, 509, 513,524-525 barriers to, 525-526, 732-733 definition, 294

ecosystem management, 246-248

in Europe, 547

evaluation of, 815-816

food, fibre and forest products, 295-296

human health, 43

international and national actions, 43,416-417, 731-733 in Latin America, 591-593 in small islands, 706 Plant functional type (PFT)*, 219,226,240 Plasmodium falciparum, 400,406,407,408 Plasmodium vivax, 408,413

Polar bears (Ursus maritimus), 88,231,236,237,668-669, 734, 792 endangerment status, 231 habitat reduction, 213

reproductive success, 103 vulnerability/risk, 230, 231,240,668-669 Polar regions (Arctic and Antarctic), 56,62-63,653-685 acidification of oceans/seas, 655, 658 adaptation, 82,655, 660, 672-673 adaptive capacity, 658-660, 661 albedo, 655,656,661 Antarctic Peninsula case study, 674-675 aquatic productivity and biodiversity, 665 assumptions about future trends, 661-663 biodiversity, 667, 792 carbon storage/flux, 662, 665, 667-668 case studies, 673-675

climate, environment and socio-economic state, 655, 656-658

climate projections, 150, 151, 656-657 coastal zone and small islands, 92, 320,672 current sensitivity/vulnerability, 656-661 economies/socio-economic systems, 56, 655, 657,661,

665-666,668,676

ecosystems, 56, 665-671 (See also Sea-ice biome) feedbacks to global climate systems, 655, 660,661-662,

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