Latin America

• Over the next 15 years, inter-tropical glaciers are very likely to disappear, reducing water availability and hydropower generation in Bolivia, Peru, Colombia and Ecuador. *** C [13.2.4]

• Any future reductions in rainfall in arid and semi-arid regions of Argentina, Chile and Brazil are likely to lead to severe water shortages. ** C [13.4.3]

• By the 2020s between 7 million and 77 million people are likely to suffer from a lack of adequate water supplies, while for the second half of the century the potential water availability reduction and the increasing demand, from an increasing regional population, would increase these figures to between 60 and 150 million. ** D [13.ES, 13.4.3]

• In the future, anthropogenic climate change (including changes in weather extremes) and sea-level rise are very likely to have impacts on ** N [13.4.4]:

- low-lying areas (e.g., in El Salvador, Guyana, the coast of Buenos Aires Province in Argentina);

- buildings and tourism (e.g., in Mexico and Uruguay);

- mangroves (e.g., in Brazil, Ecuador, Colombia, Venezuela);

- availability of drinking water in the Pacific coast of Costa Rica and Ecuador.

• Sea surface temperature increases due to climate change are projected to have adverse effects on ** N [13.4.4]:

- Mesoamerican coral reefs (e.g., Mexico, Belize, Panama);

- the location of fish stocks in the south-east Pacific (e.g., Peru and Chile).

• Increases of 2°C and decreases in soil water would lead to a replacement of tropical forest by savannas in eastern Amazonia and in the tropical forests of central and southern Mexico, along with replacement of semi-arid by arid vegetation in parts of northeast Brazil and most of central and northern Mexico. ** D [13.4.1]

• In the future, the frequency and intensity of hurricanes in the Caribbean Basin are likely to increase. * D [13.3.1]

• As a result of climate change, rice yields are expected to decline after the year 2020, while increases in temperature and precipitation in south-eastern South America are likely to increase soybean yields if CO2 effects are considered. * C [13.4.2]

• The number of additional people at risk of hunger under the SRES A2 emissions scenario is likely to attain 5,26 and 85 million in 2020, 2050 and 2080, respectively, assuming little or no CO2 effects. * D [13.4.2]

• Cattle productivity is very likely to decline in response to a 4°C increase in temperatures. ** N [13.ES, 13.4.2]

• The Latin American region, concerned with the potential effects of climate variability and change, is trying to implement some adaptation measures such as:

- the use of climate forecasts in sectors such as fisheries (Peru) and agriculture (Peru, north-eastern Brazil);

- early-warning systems for flood in the Rio de la Plata Basin based on the 'Centro Operativo de Alerta Hidrológico'.

• The region has also created new institutions to mitigate and prevent impacts from natural hazards, such as the Regional Disaster Information Center for Latin America and the Caribbean, the International Centre for Research on El Niño Phenomenon in Ecuador, and the Permanent Commission of the South Pacific. *** D [13.2.5]

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