Key future impacts and vulnerabilities

Key future climate change impacts and vulnerabilities for Asia are summarised in Figure 10.4. A detailed discussion of these impacts and vulnerabilities are presented in the sections below.

10.4.1 Agriculture and food security

10.4.1.1 Production

Results of recent studies suggest that substantial decreases in cereal production potential in Asia could be likely by the end of this century as a consequence of climate change. However, regional differences in the response of wheat, maize and rice yields to projected climate change could likely be significant (Parry et al., 1999; Rosenzweig et al., 2001). Results of crop yield projection using HadCM2 indicate that crop yields could likely increase up to 20% in East and South-East Asia while it could decrease up to 30% in Central and South Asia even if the direct positive physiological effects of CO2 are taken into account. As a consequence of the combined influence of fertilisation effect and the accompanying thermal stress and

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