Joint attribution

Joint attribution involves attribution of significant changes in a natural or managed system to regional temperature changes, and attribution of a significant fraction of the regional temperature change to human activities. This has been performed using studies with climate models to assess observed changes in several different physical and biological systems. An assessment of the relationship between significant observed changes from Section 1.3 and significant regional temperature changes is presented in Section 1.4.2.3.

1.42.1 Attributing regional temperature change

It is likely that there has been a substantial anthropogenic contribution to surface temperature increases averaged over each continent except Antarctica since the middle of the 20th century (Hegerl et al., 2007, Section 9.4.2). Statistically significant regional warming trends over the last 50 and 30 years are found in many regions of the globe (Spagnoli et al., 2002; Karoly and Wu, 2005; Karoly and Stott, 2006; Knutson et al., 2006; Zhang et

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