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I I I II | I I I I I I I I I I I O Severe bleaching • Low to medium bleaching

I I I II | I I I I I I I I I I I O Severe bleaching • Low to medium bleaching

Figure C2.1. Maximum monthly mean sea surface temperature for 1998, 2002 and 2005, and locations of reported coral bleaching (data sources: NOAA Coral Reef Watch (http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/) and Reefbase (http://www.reefbase.org/)).

Figure C2.2a), but with local variations due to different susceptibilities to factors such as water depth. Recent preliminary studies lend some support to the adaptive bleaching hypothesis, indicating that the coral host may be able to adapt or acclimatise as a result of expelling one clade1 of symbiotic algae but recovering with a new one (termed 'shuffling', see C2.2.1), creating 'new' ecospecies with different temperature tolerances (Coles and Brown, 2003; Buddemeier et al., 2004; Little et al., 2004; Rowan, 2004; Obura, 2005). Adaptation or acclimatisation might result in an increase in the threshold temperature at which bleaching occurs (Figure C2.2b). The extent to which the thermal threshold could increase with warming of more than a couple of degrees remains very uncertain, as are the effects of additional stresses, such as reduced carbonate supersaturation in surface waters (see C2.2.1) and non-climate stresses (see C2.3.1). Corals and other calcifying organisms (e.g., molluscs, foraminifers) remain extremely susceptible to increases in SST. Bleaching events reported in recent years have already impacted many reefs, and their more frequent recurrence is very likely to further reduce both coral cover and diversity on reefs over the next few decades.

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